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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2017-09-23 22:43:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 232042 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 105.3W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Manzanillo northward to El Roblito, including the Islas Marias. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to El Roblito, including the Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 105.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight into Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over the western portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, western Jalisco and Nayarit. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin within the southern portion of the warning area this evening, and gradually spread northward along the Mexican coast on Sunday and Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-09-23 22:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 232042 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 1(14) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 7( 8) 22(30) 15(45) 6(51) 1(52) X(52) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 14(27) 2(29) 1(30) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 1 5( 6) 16(22) 12(34) 6(40) 1(41) X(41) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P VALLARTA 34 2 22(24) 19(43) 6(49) 2(51) 1(52) X(52) P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 22 25(47) 6(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 13 16(29) 4(33) X(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-09-23 22:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 232042 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO... INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO... INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.3W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.3W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 105.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.4N 105.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.2N 106.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.2N 106.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 24.0N 108.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 26.0N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Lee Graphics
2017-09-22 22:40:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 20:40:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:28:22 GMT
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-09-22 22:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 222037 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 The mid-level circulation from Lee separated from the low-level center two days ago and moved northward around the eastern periphery of a large upper-level trough. A large convective burst over the mid-level center yesterday then caused a new low-level center to develop while it moved on the northern side of the upper trough. ASCAT and ship data indicate that the small circulation is now well defined, and since deep convection has persisted near the center, advisories on Lee are being restarted. The initial wind speed is 30 kt, which could be conservative given the healthy structure seen on the last-light visible and recent microwave data. Cold upper-level temperatures from the upper trough should mitigate the effect of marginally warm waters for the next few days while Lee remains in a low-shear environment. The depression is expected to strengthen over the next few days until westerly shear is forecast to increase. The official forecast is similar to the model guidance, although it shows an earlier peak more coincident with the lower-shear, warmer-water environment. This wind speed forecast is difficult because Lee is a very small tropical cyclone, which notoriously have rapid changes, both up and down, in intensity. Lee is moving northward at about 6 kt. The depression should turn to the northeast and east over the next couple of days while it moves around a ridge over the tropical central Atlantic. Lee is forecast to become trapped beneath a mid-latitude ridge in a few days, which should cause the cyclone to drift at long range. It should be noted that models have a rather weak representation of Lee at the present time, which causes this to be an uncertain forecast. For now, the forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which has the most coherent cyclone to follow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 30.8N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 31.7N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 32.3N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 32.3N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 32.1N 45.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 31.4N 43.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 30.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 29.5N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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