je.st
news
Tag: tropical depression
Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-09-06 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060236 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 96.4W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 96.4W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 96.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.1N 96.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.8N 95.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 95.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.2N 95.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.8N 95.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 19.4N 98.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 96.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2017-09-05 22:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Sep 2017 20:41:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Sep 2017 21:38:55 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
thirteen
Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-09-05 22:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052038 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 The small area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better organized during the past several hours, with deep convection forming over the center. ASCAT data showed a well-defined circulation with winds of about 30 kt. Thus, a tropical depression has formed, with maximum winds estimated at 30 kt. While the cyclone is currently experiencing westerly shear, most of the guidance indicate the shear should gradually lessen. Combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, this should promote strengthening. The shear could increase again in a few days, so the intensity forecast will be leveled off at that time. The NHC wind speed prediction is near or slightly higher than the model consensus, but could be conservative. The depression has been drifting eastward during the day. For the next couple of days, the cyclone isn't expected to move much as it is caught in an area of light winds in the mid-levels. By Friday, a ridge should build over Texas and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, which is likely to steer the system southwestward at a faster pace. The NHC forecast is on the southern side of the guidance, since models in that area tend to have a northward bias, between the corrected consensus and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.4N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 22.2N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 21.8N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 21.4N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 20.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 19.7N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-09-05 22:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 052036 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132017 2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) LA PESCA MX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) TAMPICO MX 34 3 5( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 9(27) 4(31) X(31) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 2 7( 9) 7(16) 8(24) 12(36) 7(43) X(43) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 9(17) 15(32) 7(39) X(39) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132017)
2017-09-05 22:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 the center of Thirteen was located near 22.4, -96.7 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
thirteen
Sites : [859] [860] [861] [862] [863] [864] [865] [866] [867] [868] [869] [870] [871] [872] [873] [874] [875] [876] [877] [878] next »