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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-09-12 10:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 120837 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 7( 7) 17(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-12 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.8, -115.1 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 3
2017-09-12 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 120837 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 115.1W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 115.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-southwestward motion at a slower speed is expected later today followed by a turn back toward the west on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-09-12 10:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 120837 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.1W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.1W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.1N 118.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.1N 120.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.3N 121.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.9N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-12 05:59:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 the center of Irma was located near 32.4, -84.9 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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