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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1A
2017-09-13 19:39:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 131739 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...VERY HEAVY RAINS ALREADY ON THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 101.6W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 101.6 West. The depression has been moving little for the past couple of hours, but is expected to resume a north-northeast track near 5 mph (7 km/h) later today. This motion will bring the center of the depression near the coast of Mexico tonight and then inland on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before the depression moves inland. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across southern portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-13 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 14.9, -120.6 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-09-13 04:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 130241 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.2N 119.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.3N 121.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.5N 122.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 125.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 15.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 15.6N 126.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-12 22:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 20:38:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Sep 2017 20:38:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-09-12 22:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 The depression is struggling to maintain deep convection in the face of moderate to strong vertical shear. All of the limited deep convection is displaced about 60 nm west of its center. The TAFB and SAB Dvorak Current Intensity values have not changed, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The dislocation of the deep convection should continue, as it's being forced by strong easterlies due to an upper-level ridge to the north of the depression. Moderate shear should continue for the next couple of days, limiting the opportunity for the depression to intensify. In about two days, the depression may begin interacting with a developing tropical cyclone to its east. (This new system is currently in the Tropical Weather Outlook with a high chance of formation within the next five days.) One plausible scenario is for the depression to be absorbed by the new tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast instead shows gradual weakening as the depression tracks slowly westward, due to an increasingly hostile upper-level environment. The intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and is based upon a blend of the global models, the LGEM statistical scheme, and the COAMPS mesoscale hurricane model. The depression is moving toward the west at 12 kt, primarily being steered by the deep-layer ridge to its north. The depression should continue moving in this general direction at a slower rate of forward speed during the next couple of days. At days three and four, the low-level steering flow should weaken due to the developing tropical cyclone to the depression's east. The official track forecast is based upon the model consensus minus the UKMET (whose tracker latches on to the developing tropical cyclone instead) and is about the same as the previous advisory. This track prediction has higher uncertainty than usual because of the divergence of plausible outcomes for the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.6N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 15.2N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 14.9N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 15.3N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 15.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 15.5N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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