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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-10-12 16:42:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121442 TCDEP1 Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Similar to this time yesterday, Pamela is undergoing an episodic convective bursting phase. The convection is likely being modulated by west-northwesterly mid-level shear of at least 15 kt that is undercutting the outflow layer, plus intrusions of dry mid-level air with humidity values near 55 percent, as analyzed in SHIPS diagnostics. The intensity at 1200 UTC was increased to 70 kt based on an average of subjective Dvorak satellite classifications of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB, and an objective estimate of 70 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to investigate Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field. Pamela is moving northward or 010/11 kt. The hurricane is now on or just north of the east-west-oriented axis of a deep-layer subtropical ridge situated over central Mexico. The northward motion should continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the northeast by this afternoon or early evening as Pamela becomes embedded within southwesterly environmental flow ahead of a broad mid-/upper-level trough. That large-scale feature will cause the hurricane to accelerate tonight through Wednesday, with Pamela now expected to reach the coast of west-central Mexico just before 1200 UTC Wednesday morning. After the hurricane moves inland early Wednesday, Pamela, or its remnants should continue to accelerate northeastward across central and northern Mexico and into Texas by the end of the week. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory forecast track, so no significant changes were required. The latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models output show that west-northwesterly 850-200-mb shear of at least 15 kt is allegedly affecting Pamela. However, shear analyses from UW-CIMSS indicate that the shear is less than 10 kt from the west. Once Pamela makes the northeastward turn, the deep-layer shear vector is forecast to back around to a southwesterly direction and become aligned with the hurricane's forward motion, which should help to lessen the negative effects of the vertical wind shear. Although the mid-level moisture is expected to be somewhat austere at only 50-55 percent, Pamela will be moving over sea-surface temperatures (SST) near 31 deg C, which is almost 1 deg C warmer than current SST values beneath the hurricane. This expected increase in ocean heat content, along with decreasing shear, should enhance the convective bursting phase that Pamela will likely undergo later tonight during the nocturnal convective maximum period, enabling the cyclone to strengthen to near major hurricane status before landfall occurs. The new NHC intensity forecast continues to indicate steady to rapid strengthening, and remains above all of the available intensity guidance. After landfall, Pamela is expected to rapidly decay due to interaction with the mountainous terrain of Mexico, with the cyclone ultimately dissipating over northern Mexico in 2 to 3 days. Another aircraft reconnaissance mission to investigate Pamela is scheduled for tonight at 0530 UTC. Although the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane later today and tonight, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.4N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 21.8N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 24.1N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/0000Z 27.1N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1200Z 30.7N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-10-12 16:42:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 121442 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS IN THIS CASE...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 18 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 18 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 108.9W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 108.9W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.1N 106.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.1N 103.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 99.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-10-12 16:42:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 121442 PWSEP1 HURRICANE PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X 39(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CULIACAN 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 13 14(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 34 3 90(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MAZATLAN 50 X 48(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MAZATLAN 64 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 10
2021-10-12 16:42:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121442 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...PAMELA FORECAST TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 108.9W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, in this case within the next 18 hours, producing conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 18 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue this morning, followed by a faster northeastward motion by this afternoon or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 9A
2021-10-12 13:46:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121146 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 600 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...PAMELA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 109.0W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 109.0 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue today, followed by a faster northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico early Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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