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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-15 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 889 WTNT41 KNHC 152034 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine continues to feel the effects of westerly shear, and the low cloud swirl denoting the center is partly exposed at the western edge of the convection. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed significantly since the earlier recon flight, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Animation of satellite imagery suggests that the low-level circulation is at best barely closed, but there is insufficient evidence right now to justify a downgrade to a tropical wave. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system near 0000Z. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. It sounds like a broken record, but there is little change to either the forecast guidance or the forecast track since the last advisory. For the next 36-48 h, Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward on the southwest side of the subtropical ridge. After that, the system is forecast to recurve to the north and north-northeast through a break in the western portion of the ridge. As before, the new NHC forecast lies near the the center of the tightly-clustered guidance and near the various consensus models. Josephine is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to strong westerly shear for at least the next 48-60 h which should cause the system to weaken. The intensity forecast, which assumes some sort of closed circulation will last for 5 days, now calls for the system to weaken to a depression between 24-36 h and become a remnant low by 60 h. An alternative scenario is that the system degenerates to a tropical wave, which could occur at almost any time given the state of the circulation. There is a chance that Josephine or its remnants could encounter a less hostile environment after 72 h. However, it remains unclear at this time whether there will be enough left of the system to take advantage of those favorable conditions. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine is passing far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 20.0N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 20.8N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 22.1N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 23.4N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 26.3N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 28.0N 69.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 30.5N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-08-15 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 152034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-15 22:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For a brief time this morning, the depression actually developed a broken band of convection that wrapped nearly halfway around the cyclone. However, it didn't persist for long and convection is mostly once again limited to the southwest quadrant. Scatterometer data valid shortly before 18Z supported an intensity of 30 kt. The depression has been nearly stationary for the past several hours after drifting west-southwestward most of the morning. It is forecast to meander for the next several days with little change in structure, strength, or position as it continues to encounter strong upper-level winds but weak low- to mid-level steering flow. Near the end of the forecast period, the GFS indicates that the depression could interact with another low related to current invest 94E, which would cause the depression to move eastward. There is very low confidence in this scenario, and it is not supported by most of the other models. Due to the GFS outlier solution, the model consensus has shifted substantially eastward, however the NHC forecast has only been slightly adjusted in that direction. Given the continued lack of particularly well organized convection, it is possible that the system could either become a remnant low or open into a trough, though neither of those scenarios is explicitly supported by the global or hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 13.0N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 13.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 13.6N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 14.1N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 13.4N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 13.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-08-15 22:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 152032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 15N 135W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 2(25) 1(26) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 11
2020-08-15 22:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 152032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HOLDING ON TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 133.7W ABOUT 1705 MI...2740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 133.7 West. The depression has been stationary for the past several hours. It is forecast to meander for the next several days, with little overall change in position. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Minor fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next two or three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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