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Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Public Advisory Number 44
2021-09-11 16:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 111437 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 ...LARRY IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE LABRADOR SEA... ...STILL PRODUCING LARGE SWELLS ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...54.0N 48.2W ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM WSW OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry was located near latitude 54.0 North, longitude 48.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h) and this heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected until Larry merges with an extratropical low tonight or early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is possible before Larry merges with another extratropical low. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside in southeastern Newfoundland today. SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Larry. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2021-09-11 16:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 111437 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 54.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Forecast Advisory Number 44
2021-09-11 16:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 111436 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 48.2W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 42 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT.......210NE 270SE 210SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 600SE 840SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 48.2W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 52.5N 49.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.8N 44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 54.0N 48.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON LARRY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-09-11 10:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110834 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Olaf has been without deep convection for about the last 18 hours, and it is therefore being designated as a remnant low. A scatterometer pass from several hours ago still showed winds of 25-30 kt occurring to the north of the center, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Weakening is expected during the next few days while the remnant low traverses waters of about 25 degrees Celsius and through a very dry air mass. Global model fields show the circulation opening up into a trough anywhere between 2 and 6 days from now, so as a compromise the official forecast indicates this happening by day 4, but it's likely to be sooner than that. Olaf is now losing latitude and moving south of due west, or 260/5 kt. A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge to the north is expected to force the remnant low to the west-southwest and southwest during the next several days. In fact, the models have been trending toward a more pronounced loss of latitude, and this final NHC track forecast has been shifted southward from the previous advisory--close to the TVCE model consensus but not nearly as far south as the HCCA aid. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 24.4N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Public Advisory Number 15
2021-09-11 10:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 722 WTPZ35 KNHC 110833 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 ...OLAF BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 114.0W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 114.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to begin later today and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and the remnant low could open up into a trough at any time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Residual swells from Olaf along the west coast of Baja California Sur will continue to subside today but could still cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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