je.st
news
Tag: number
Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-09-11 10:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 721 FOPZ15 KNHC 110833 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
speed
wind
cyclone
Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-09-11 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110833 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 114.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
cyclone
Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 43
2021-09-11 10:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110832 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 Larry made landfall near South East Bight, Newfoundland, around 0345 UTC. Since then, the hurricane has moved quickly north- northeastward at 42 kt and is now well northeast of Newfoundland. Although the hurricane still has some central convection, the low- and mid-level centers are separating, and the remaining convection is decreasing. The initial winds are lowered to 65 kt, consistent with the degraded structure. Larry should quickly transition into a strong post-tropical cyclone later today while it continues its speedy north-northeastward course, then dissipate as it merges with a developing mid-latitude low over the Labrador Sea. No significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 50.7N 51.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 56.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
larry
forecast
Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2021-09-11 10:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 110831 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 50.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 43
2021-09-11 10:30:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 110830 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 ...LARRY RACING AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...50.7N 51.7W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM WSW OF REYKJAVIK ICELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 48 MPH...78 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All warnings for Newfoundland have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 50.7 North, longitude 51.7 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northeast near 48 mph (78 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is forecast to transition into a post-tropical cyclone later today, and merge with a larger non-tropical low by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages STORM SURGE: Water levels will gradually subside in southeastern Newfoundland today. SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
larry
advisory
Sites : [109] [110] [111] [112] [113] [114] [115] [116] [117] [118] [119] [120] [121] [122] [123] [124] [125] [126] [127] [128] next »