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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2021-09-10 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 287 FONT12 KNHC 101447 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 58 37(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 1 85(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ILE ST PIERRE 34 83 15(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ILE ST PIERRE 50 21 53(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ILE ST PIERRE 64 3 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BURGEO NFLD 34 32 19(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) PTX BASQUES 34 8 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) EDDY POINT NS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SABLE ISLAND 34 78 X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SABLE ISLAND 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-09-10 16:48:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 007 WTPZ25 KNHC 101447 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD AND AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 111.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 111.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 110.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 111.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 40
2021-09-10 16:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 101447 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO FOGO ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 60.5W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......210NE 210SE 180SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 350SE 280SW 340NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 60.5W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 250SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 61.1N 38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 480SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 60.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 40
2021-09-10 16:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 101447 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THAT AREA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.0N 60.5W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Larry is moving quickly toward the north-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will pass well southeast of Nova Scotia today, and move over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall in Newfoundland. After landfall, Larry should weaken and become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Larry is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland later today. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas today. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland tonight, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-09-10 13:48:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101148 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 110.8W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Baja California Sur Mexico south of Todos Santos * Baja California Sur Mexico south of Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 110.8 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today and then turn westward away from land by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Olaf is forecast to remain a hurricane while it moves along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today. It is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight when it begins to move away from land and then degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the hurricane warning area and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward across central portions of Baja California Sur today. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should end over Baja California Sur by tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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