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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 43
2021-09-11 10:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 403 WTNT22 KNHC 110830 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS FOR NEWFOUNDLAND HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.7N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 42 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT.......180NE 240SE 150SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 350SE 660SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.7N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.8N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 56.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 50.7N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 42A
2021-09-11 07:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 110541 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 42A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 ...LARRY LASHING NEWFOUNDLAND WITH STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...48.7N 53.2W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF ST JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from Francois to west of Arnold's Cove has been discontinued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Fogo Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 48.7 North, longitude 53.2 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northeast near 47 mph (76 km/h). A very rapid motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected through today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will be moving quickly away from Newfoundland during the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and Larry is expected to become a strong extratropical low later this morning before it merges with another low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). St. John's International Airport, Newfoundland, recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a wind gust of 90 mph (144 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches) based on surface observations from Newfoundland. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warned areas during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-09-11 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110249 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Olaf Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Olaf continues to rapidly weaken this evening as the low-level circulation spins down while devoid of any deep convection. Olaf has now failed to produce deep convection for more than 12 hours, and barring any diurnal convective bursts tonight, could become a remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning. Winds along the coast of Baja California Sur are gradually subsiding, and the most recent TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak data-T intensity estimates support downgrading Olaf to a tropical depression this advisory, with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. The tropical depression's track continues to bend leftward as it pulls away from Baja California Sur, with the latest motion estimate now due west at 270/7 kt. Now that Olaf has become a shallow cyclone, it will primarily be steered by the low-level flow around a extensive subtropical ridge located to the northwest. This flow will continue to turn Olaf to the left with a southwestward motion beginning in the next 24 hours, which should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The official NHC track forecast was nudged a little to the south and east, following the multi-model consensus aids. A combination of cooling sea-surface temperatures (below 26 C) and very dry-mid level air (below 40 percent relative humidity) should ensure that Olaf will soon meet a swift end as a tropical cyclone. The official NHC intensity forecast now makes Olaf a remnant low in 12 hours, and spins the circulation down to 20 kt until eventual dissipation over the open east Pacific. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 24.7N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 23.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 22.7N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1200Z 21.7N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 21.0N 120.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 20.6N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 42
2021-09-11 04:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110248 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 Satellite imagery and data from Canadian radars indicate that Larry is maintaining good central convective banding in the northeastern semicircle, and based on this it is still a tropical cyclone at this time. The maximum intensity is held at 70 kt based mainly on recently-received scattterometer data showing 64-67 kt winds to the east and southeast of the center. Surface observations indicate that tropical storm conditions are spreading into southeastern Newfoundland, and hurricane condition should move onshore during the next few hours as the center makes landfall. After landfall, Larry is expected to quickly lose its tropical cyclone characteristics and become a strong extratropical low over the Labrador Sea. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate after 24 h as it merges with a developing mid-latitude low currently to its northwest. Larry is moving rapidly toward the north-northeast with an initial motion of 030/41. This general motion should continue until Larry merges with the other low pressure area. The new official forecast track is little changed from the previous track and is in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance models. Key Messages: 1. Larry will move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland during the next several hours as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 46.8N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 51.9N 49.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/0000Z 56.8N 44.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
2021-09-11 04:48:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 510 FONT12 KNHC 110248 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) ILE ST PIERRE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ILE ST PIERRE 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURGEO NFLD 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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