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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-28 16:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281457 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 The satellite presentation of Ida has continued to improve this morning with the center embedded within a fairly symmetric Central Dense Overcast and hints of the eye in both visible in infrared satellite imagery. Earlier microwave imagery revealed a well- defined low- to mid-level eye and excellent spiral banding over the northern semicircle. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft, somewhat surprisingly, have not found a significantly deepening tropical cyclone yet, but given the very recent increase in organization and structure, the winds are likely to catch up to the satellite appearance very soon. Using the latest flight-level and SFMR wind data from the aircraft and satellite intensity estimates the initial wind speed remains 75 kt for this advisory. The aircraft data does indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded, and the NHC wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Given the improved inner-core structure Ida appears poised to rapidly intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm water. Although the interpolated intensity guidance has lowered somewhat due to the fact that Ida has not significantly strengthened yet, the explicit forecasts from the dynamical models continue to support significant deepening, and the latest runs of the HWRF and HMON models indicate Ida will reach Category 4 strength before landfall. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification to Category 4 strength during the next 24 hours. After that time, fluctuations in intensity are possible due to eyewall replacement cycles as Ida approaches the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Ida is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday night, and become a post-tropical cyclone as it moves over the Tennessee Valley by mid-week. Ida has been moving steadily northwestward or 315/14 kt. A deep layer ridge near the southeastern United States coast is forecast to shift westward during the next day or so, and this should continue to steer Ida northwestward through landfall on Sunday. The track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement through 36 hours, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged during that time, and continues to indicate that Ida will reach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday. After landfall, Ida will be near the western extent of the ridge and should turn northward and then northeastward as it recurves into the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance has shifted slightly westward beyond 48 hours, and the track forecast over the southern U.S. and the Tennessee Valley has been adjusted accordingly. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Wind and rainfall impacts will also penetrate inland through early next week after Ida makes landfall. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today in the warning area. 3. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi, resulting in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are likely across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Monday and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 24.8N 86.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 28.0N 89.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 29.4N 91.0W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/0000Z 32.7N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 34.4N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 36.8N 85.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 37.9N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 9
2021-08-28 16:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281451 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...IDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SOON... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 86.1W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward along the northern Gulf coast to the Alabama/Florida border. The Hurricane Watch along the coast of Mississippi from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border has been discontinued. The Hurricane Watch along the coast of Louisiana west of Intracoastal City has also been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch from Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mobile Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 86.1 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding impacts and significant riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts. Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba today as the storm continues to lift northward away from the island. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across western Cuba through today. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through today. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast later today and continue through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-08-28 16:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 281451 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 2 2( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WHITING FLD FL 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 5(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) PENSACOLA FL 34 2 3( 5) 11(16) 5(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 290N 870W 34 8 31(39) 3(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 1 7( 8) 27(35) 10(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) MOBILE AL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 1 17(18) 43(61) 9(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 34 1 24(25) 47(72) 10(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) STENNIS MS 50 X 1( 1) 31(32) 7(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BURAS LA 34 2 73(75) 18(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BURAS LA 50 X 16(16) 41(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) BURAS LA 64 X 5( 5) 27(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 280N 890W 34 46 54(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 2 91(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 66(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 29(57) 4(61) X(61) X(61) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 37(38) 52(90) 5(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 2( 2) 55(57) 13(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 35(35) 10(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 87(89) 6(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 37(37) 26(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 10(10) 18(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 11(11) 71(82) 13(95) 2(97) X(97) X(97) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 1( 1) 49(50) 25(75) 4(79) X(79) X(79) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 26(26) 24(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 31(32) 61(93) 5(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 3( 3) 67(70) 14(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 1( 1) 48(49) 12(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 41(43) 29(72) 4(76) X(76) X(76) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 7( 7) 68(75) 15(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 1( 1) 37(38) 23(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) 19(19) 19(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 10(10) 71(81) 12(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 45(46) 20(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 25(25) 17(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 9(10) 25(35) 4(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) 24(57) 3(60) X(60) X(60) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 40(43) 20(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X 6( 6) 45(51) 10(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 16(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 12(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 14(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-08-28 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 281450 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOBILE BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 86.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 86.1W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N 89.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.4N 91.0W...NEAR COAST OF LOUISIANA MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 32.7N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.4N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 36.8N 85.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 37.9N 79.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 86.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-28 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 281450 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Nora continues to show signs of strengthening with the center embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast, where clouds tops are now as cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB are T4.0/65 kt and T4.5/77 kt, and the most recent objective numbers are near 75 kt. Nora's initial intensity is conservatively estimated to be 70 kt, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should help us verify the maximum winds later this afternoon. The latest fixes indicate that Nora is moving west of due north, or 350/10 kt. A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies has created a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the southwestern U.S., which should allow Nora to continue moving northward or north-northwestward through tonight. This motion will take Nora's center and hurricane-force winds very close to or over portions of Jalisco, Mexico, later today and this evening. On Sunday, the track guidance suggests that Nora will make a turn back toward the northwest, bringing the center over the Gulf of California by Monday at a much slower forward speed. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but the narrow width of the Gulf of California means that hazards away from the center could affect both the coast of mainland Mexico and the east coast of Baja California Sur. Due to this uncertainty, new watches and warnings have been extended northward along both coasts. The track guidance--and the NHC official forecast--suggest that Nora's center could move inland over Sonora, Mexico, in 4 to 5 days. Assuming Nora's center remains over water, low shear and warm waters should allow for additional strengthening during the next 24-36 hours. After that time, possible land interaction, influences of nearby topography, and potential ingestion of dry air from the Mexican plateau could all conspire to cause at least gradual weakening while Nora begins to move into the Gulf of California. That said, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the intensity prediction, and Nora is forecast to remain as a hurricane through early Tuesday, a scenario supported by the ECMWF model. One thing the models do agree on is that Nora's wind field should contract after it passes Cabo Corrientes and heads into the Gulf of California, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast strengthen through tonight as it moves near the coasts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa, and hurricane warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas and points farther north should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero, northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora may spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of next week. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane by Monday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 18.4N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.1N 105.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 23.1N 107.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.8N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 24.5N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 25.2N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 29.3N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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