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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-29 10:57:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 290857 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...DEPRESSION ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 48.6W ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 48.6 West. The depression is moving a bit faster toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this direction of motion is expected to continue with further acceleration through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become to a tropical storm later today. The system is then forecast to become post-tropical by Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-29 10:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290856 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.8N 45.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.5N 41.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 70SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 41.8N 37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 45.9N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 50.0N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-29 10:56:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 034 WTNT45 KNHC 290856 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 Tropical Depression Ten continues to struggle against 25-30 kt of northwesterly vertical wind shear, as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS guidance. Convection has thus remained displaced primarily to the southeast, though with some recent cells trying to develop closer to the center. The most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates were T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt with the objective ADT estimate at T2.3/33 kt. Given the disorganized nature of the current structure on IR satellite, I have elected to stay on the conservative side of these estimates and hold the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression continues to move toward the north at 360/9 kt. A large weakness in the mid-level ridging, due to a strong upper-tropospheric trough, will allow the depression to continue moving northward in the short-term, though there may be some occasional eastward bends as downshear convection tugs at the low-level vortex of the system. However by 72 h, some mid-level ridging is expected to build back in, allowing the track to shift a bit more leftward to the north-northwest after this point. The track guidance has not shifted much over the forecast period, and the latest NHC track forecast is nearly on top of the previous one, continuing to favor a blend of the the consensus aids (HCCA, TVCN). The poor current structure of the depression, under high shear importing dry air, argues against much short term intensification. However, the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance still suggests a brief respite in the shear between 12-24 hours. For this reason, the NHC intensity forecast still shows some slight strengthening to a tropical storm in 24 hours. Another round of 25-30 kt of vertical wind shear between 24-48 hours is then expected to keep the system in check, and it remains possible that the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low over this time period. However, by 72 hours, the upper-level trough shearing the system is forecast to cut-off to the southwest, and this will shift the upper-level flow from northwesterly to southeasterly, which should provide a more favorable environment for strengthening. Thus, gradual strengthening is shown beginning in 72 hours extending through the end of the forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous forecast, favoring the more pessimistic ECMWF guidance versus the more aggressive GFS and regional hurricane models. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the latter portion of this forecast since it is unclear how much of the cyclone will survive the current unfavorable environment during the next 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 17.3N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 18.4N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 19.9N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 21.4N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 22.7N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 24.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 25.6N 49.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 29.0N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-08-29 10:56:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 290855 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 10 19(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MOBILE AL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 67 17(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) GULFPORT MS 50 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GULFPORT MS 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 87 8(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) STENNIS MS 50 13 36(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) STENNIS MS 64 1 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 92 2(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BURAS LA 64 28 9(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 4 37(41) 21(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) JACKSON MS 50 X 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 58 37(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 9 60(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) GFMX 280N 910W 34 77 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GFMX 280N 910W 50 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 910W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 70 28(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 50 7 78(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BATON ROUGE LA 64 1 53(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MORGAN CITY LA 34 94 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 40 46(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MORGAN CITY LA 64 6 47(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 4 51(55) 6(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 1 10(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 31 56(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) LAFAYETTE LA 50 3 28(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) LAFAYETTE LA 64 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 50 39(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NEW IBERIA LA 50 5 33(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW IBERIA LA 64 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FORT POLK LA 34 3 21(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) FORT POLK LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 4 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LAKE CHARLES 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 5 10(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CAMERON LA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-29 10:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290855 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.3W...NEAR SERN LOUISIANA COAST MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 89.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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