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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-27 22:41:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 272041 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER INCLUDING VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 83.2W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 83.2W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 82.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.5N 84.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.3N 86.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.1N 89.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.0N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.5N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.4N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 86.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 83.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-08-27 19:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271743 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA MAKES LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ON THE ISLE OF YOUTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 82.7W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF THE CENTER OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 145 MI...245 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located by Cuban radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass over the Isle of Youth during the next hour or so, move over western Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Sunday. Reports from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast before the center moves over western Cuba later today. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has recently been observed on Cayo Largo, Cuba. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and are expected to spread over portions of western Cuba in the hurricane warning area by later this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are already beginning to reach portions of western Cuba and will continue through early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 8A
2021-08-27 19:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 271734 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...RAINBANDS FROM NORA CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THOUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 104.6W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 104.6 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight and pass very near the coasts of the states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. A ship near the coast of Mexico about 200 miles northeast of Nora's center recently reported winds of 48 mph (78 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to northern portions of the warning area through Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-27 17:17:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 382 WTNT24 KNHC 271516 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CORRECTED TO ADD 64-KT WIND RADII AT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON...LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 82.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-27 16:49:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271449 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Radar imagery from Grand Cayman and Cuba as well as satellite data continue to show an improvement in Ida's overall structure this morning, with an increase in banding, the development of a small central dense overcast, and more recently an improved inner-core feature. Both the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported that the pressure has fallen to around 996 mb, and the Air Force plane has measured flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial intensity of 55 kt. Although there is still some southwesterly shear over Ida, the outflow has begun to expand over the northeastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The upper-level trough near the Yucatan peninsula that has been imparting the shear over Ida is forecast to weaken and move westward during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should result in a more favorable upper-level wind pattern. This, in combination with warm sea surface temperatures and a moist environment along the forecast track of the storm are expected to result in steady to rapid strengthening. Ida is now foreast to become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba and once it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico a period of rapid strengthening is likely to begin, with the NHC intensity forecast explicitly calling for rapid intensification to major hurricane strength between 24 and 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is on the higher side of the intensity guidance but not quite as high as the slightly more aggressive CTCI, HWRF, and HCCA models. In addition to the increase in strength, the dynamical model guidance indicates that Ida's wind field will grow larger as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and this is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast. In summary, there is a higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will impact a large portion of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week. Ida is moving northwestward or 320/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to move westward and this should keep Ida on a general northwestward heading during the next 48-60 hours. This track will bring the storm across western Cuba later today, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night, to the coast of Louisiana by late Sunday. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement with very little cross-track spread during the first 60 hours or so of the forecast period. After that time, Ida is forecast to reach the western portion of the ridge, which is expected to cause the storm to slow down and turn northward and then northeastward over the southeastern United States. The NHC track forecast is near or just east of the various consensus aids, in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. Although the small spread in the guidance through landfall increases the overall confidence in the track forecast, users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected later today and tonight in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 2. The risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation is increasing along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Ida is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday, and the risk of hurricane-force winds continues to increase, especially along portions of the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans. Potentially devastating wind damage could occur where the core of Ida moves onshore. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 20.7N 82.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WESTERN CUBA 24H 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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