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Tropical Depression Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-29 10:54:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 290854 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-29 10:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...DEPRESSION BATTLING STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS... ...COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY OR TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 49.8W ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 49.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Little change in strength is expected thereafter through early this week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-29 10:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290852 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 49.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 49.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 49.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.9N 49.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.4N 49.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.7N 48.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.0N 48.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 49.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Nora Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-29 10:52:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290852 TCDEP4 Hurricane Nora Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 There have been no recent in-situ observations for estimating the intensity of Nora, but the cyclone is still fairly well-organized on satellite images. Taking a blend of T- and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB along with ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS still supports keeping the system as a hurricane at this time. Center fixes indicate that Nora is moving a little west of due north at a decreased forward speed, or around 350/9 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to move north-northwestward to northwestward during the next few days, on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. This would take Nora over the eastern part of the Gulf of California, but very near the coast of mainland Mexico over the next few days. The track guidance has shifted somewhat to the east, and now suggests that it is a very distinct possibility that the system will move inland much sooner than shown by the latest NHC track forecast. The future intensity of Nora is of course highly dependent on how soon the center moves inland. The official intensity forecast assumes that the system will remain just offshore so that only slow weakening will occur during the next 72 hours or so. This is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus guidance. Alternatively, Nora may move inland sooner than indicated, in which case the system would probably dissipate in 2 to 3 days or less. Obviously, this intensity forecast is of low confidence. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength while it moves near the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through the weekend and into Monday, and hurricane warnings or watches are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across the west coast of Mexico from the states of Colima northward to southern Sonora. This rain will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across these regions. Rainfall from Nora is likely to spread into the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies during the middle to latter portion of the week, bringing the potential for flash flooding to the region. 3. Nora is forecast to move north-northwestward to northwestward over the Gulf of California Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a risk of wind impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, northern Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast intensity, confidence is not high enough to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 22.5N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 23.6N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 24.2N 107.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.7N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 25.2N 108.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 29.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-29 10:51:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 655 FOPZ14 KNHC 290851 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) LA PAZ 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 10(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 10 22(32) 6(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) CULIACAN 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAZATLAN 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MAZATLAN 64 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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