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Remnants of Grace Forecast Discussion Number 34
2021-08-21 22:45:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212045 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Grace Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 The mountainous terrain of Mexico has taken its toll on Grace. Surface observations and high-resolution visible satellite images indicate that the system no longer has a definite surface circulation, and Grace has degenerated into a trough to the west of Mexico City. Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system. Although the surface center has dissipated, the mid-tropospheric remnants of Grace are expected to continue westward, and to emerge into the eastern Pacific Ocean by late Sunday. There is high likelihood that this will lead to the formation of a new tropical cyclone over that basin by early next week. For additional information on this possibility, see the eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS header MIATWOEP, WMO header ABPZ20 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov. Key Messages: 1. Through tonight, lingering heavy rainfall from the remnants of Grace may result in additional areas of flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides, over central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 19.6N 100.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Remnants of Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2021-08-21 22:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 212044 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF GRACE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS... 25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Remnants of Grace Public Advisory Number 34
2021-08-21 22:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 212043 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Grace Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...GRACE WEAKENS TO A DISTURBANCE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 100.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings for the coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Grace were located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 100.1 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Grace has dissipated, its remnants will likely move into the eastern North Pacific by Sunday afternoon, where it is likely to develop into a new tropical cyclone next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The remnants of Grace will be capable of producing an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of around 5 inches through tonight across portions of central Mexico, including Ciudad de Mexico. The lingering heavy rainfall may lead to additional areas of flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides, through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Remnants of Grace Forecast Advisory Number 34
2021-08-21 22:43:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 212043 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 100.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 100.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 99.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 100.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Henri Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-08-21 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 212033 TCDAT3 Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Visible satellite images and microwave data indicate that a tight inner core has formed in association with Henri, but the convective pattern appears ragged in infrared images. An ASCAT pass from earlier today indicated that the 34- and 50-kt winds continue to expand in the southeastern quadrant, and that data was used to update the initial wind radii. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 55 to 77 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Henri this evening. Henri is moving faster to the north-northeast, or 020 degrees, at 16 kt. There continues to be little change to the forecast track philosophy. A cut-off low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to the east and northeast of Henri should cause the storm to continue moving north-northeastward through tonight. A decresae in forward speed and a slight bend to the left is then forecast to occur on Sunday. The latest model guidance has shifted slightly to the right, and the NHC official track forecast has been nudged in that direction. This forecast shows landfall over eastern Long Island and southern Connecticut in about 24 hours. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 24-hour track uncertainty is around 40 miles and impacts will extend well away from the center. The environment looks favorable for Henri to strengthen through tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence associated with the upper-level trough, and warm SSTs. In fact, SST analyses indicate that Henri will be passing over a patch of very warm 30 deg C waters this evening. By early Sunday Henri is predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream. That should result in some weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over the northeast United States, rapid weakening is expected. Henri is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York and New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 36.3N 71.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 38.8N 71.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 42.1N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/0600Z 43.6N 69.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/1800Z 44.3N 68.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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