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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-08-20 22:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 202041 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 12(17) X(17) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) X(15) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 10(19) X(19) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 9(24) X(24) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 12(25) 7(32) X(32) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 18(42) 3(45) X(45) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 15(38) 5(43) X(43) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 17(62) 2(64) X(64) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) 1(24) X(24) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 40(46) 19(65) 2(67) X(67) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 16(53) 2(55) X(55) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 2(16) X(16) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 31(42) 11(53) 2(55) X(55) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 35(35) 25(60) 5(65) 1(66) X(66) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 28(28) 40(68) 8(76) 1(77) X(77) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 7(34) 1(35) X(35) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 42(54) 13(67) 1(68) X(68) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 8(26) 1(27) X(27) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 13(13) 44(57) 13(70) 2(72) X(72) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10(32) X(32) X(32) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 45(54) 16(70) 1(71) X(71) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 15(15) 48(63) 10(73) 1(74) X(74) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 10(37) X(37) X(37) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 19(44) 2(46) X(46) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ALBANY NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 17(52) 2(54) X(54) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 1( 1) 44(45) 35(80) 5(85) 1(86) X(86) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) 7(51) 1(52) X(52) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLIP NY 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 39(57) 9(66) 1(67) X(67) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 8(26) X(26) X(26) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) 32(63) 5(68) 1(69) X(69) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 32(41) 12(53) 1(54) X(54) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 29(37) 12(49) 1(50) X(50) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TRENTON NJ 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 10(33) 1(34) X(34) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 26(37) 8(45) 1(46) X(46) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 9(23) 1(24) X(24) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 7(23) 1(24) X(24) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 6( 6) 15(21) 7(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 7( 7) 14(21) 5(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 8( 8) 7(15) 3(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) RICHMOND VA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 8(12) 2(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 20
2021-08-20 22:41:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 202041 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 73.9W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the south shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, the north shore of Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point, from Greenwich, Connecticut to Chatham, Massachusetts, including Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the south shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point, for the north shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point, and from New Haven, Connecticut, to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from west of Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven, Connecticut, and for the south shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet. A Tropical Storm Watch in effect from Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey, to west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, including New York City. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point * Greenwich Connecticut to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from west of Mastic Beach to East Rockaway Inlet * North shore of Long Island from west of Oyster Bay to Flushing * Flushing New York to west of Greenwich Connecticut * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to west of East Rockaway Inlet New York, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later tonight or Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 73.9 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to accelerate in that direction through early Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Watch Hill, RI to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area and possible in the tropical storm watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri could result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-08-20 22:40:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202040 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT...THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM OYSTER BAY TO MONTAUK POINT...FROM GREENWICH CONNECTICUT TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET... MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT...FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT...AND FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY TO WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM OYSTER BAY TO MONTAUK POINT * GREENWICH CONNECTICUT TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF MASTIC BEACH TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF OYSTER BAY TO FLUSHING * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO WEST OF GREENWICH CONNECTICUT * NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * CAPE COD BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY TO WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.9W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.9W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 73.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.8N 73.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.8N 72.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.9N 71.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.0N 72.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.9N 72.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 43.8N 68.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 73.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 29A
2021-08-20 19:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 201748 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...GRACE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 94.5W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 94.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches) is based on data collected by the aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICOATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late this evening, with tropical storm conditions expected later this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late this afternoon. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in areas of flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 19A
2021-08-20 19:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201744 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 73.8W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk * North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk * Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk * North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk * New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York * West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York * West of New Haven Connecticut A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 73.8 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to accelerate in that direction through early Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod Bay...3-5 ft East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island and southern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri will result in flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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