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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-08-21 05:00:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210300 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Satellite imagery shows that Henri is becoming better organized this evening, with the low-level center becoming more embedded in the convective overcast and an increase in convective banding. There has also been an increase in the anticyclonic outflow. However, reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening, as the maximum winds remain about 60 kt to the southeast of the elongated center and the central pressure is in the 994-996 mb range. Henri has turned northward, and the initial motion is now 010/8. A deep-layer mid-latitude trough over the Appalachians and the Ohio Valley will cut off into a closed low during the next 12-24 h, while a ridge builds northward to the east and northeast of Henri. This evolution should cause the storm to move north-northeastward for 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest from 24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Henri over the mid-Atlantic states or southern New England between 36-48 h. After 48 h, the cyclone should get caught up in the southern edge of the westerlies and turn generally eastward across southern New England and the Gulf of Maine. There has been little change in the direction of the forecast guidance since the last advisory, but the guidance is faster on this cycle through 48 h. Thus, the new track forecast, which lies close to the consensus models, is faster than the previous forecast through the 48 h point. A combination of decreasing shear, improved organization, and upper-level divergence associated with the trough to the west should allow Henri to strengthen for the next 24 h or so, and the new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 75 kt. After 24 h, the center should move over cooler water, and weakening should start before landfall in the northeastern United States. However, the cyclone is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. After landfall, Henri should weaken quickly and become post-tropical by the 72 h time. Dissipation is forecast between 96-120 h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning late Saturday night or Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible late Saturday night or Sunday across portions of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 32.3N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 34.3N 72.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 37.7N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 40.2N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 41.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1200Z 42.2N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 42.7N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/0000Z 43.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-08-21 04:59:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 210259 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 2(19) X(19) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 11(27) 2(29) X(29) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 19(32) 9(41) 1(42) X(42) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) 9(36) 2(38) X(38) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WORCESTER MA 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 24(54) 6(60) 1(61) X(61) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 29(63) 5(68) 1(69) X(69) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 20(41) 7(48) 2(50) X(50) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 12(40) 6(46) 2(48) X(48) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 10(10) 40(50) 4(54) 4(58) 1(59) X(59) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 8( 8) 53(61) 10(71) 3(74) 1(75) X(75) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 15(15) 8(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 4( 4) 52(56) 22(78) 3(81) X(81) X(81) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 17(17) 21(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 4( 4) 52(56) 22(78) 3(81) X(81) X(81) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 19(19) 23(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) HARTFORD CT 34 X 3( 3) 43(46) 25(71) 6(77) X(77) X(77) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 12(12) 24(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 4( 4) 53(57) 17(74) 2(76) 1(77) X(77) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 20(20) 18(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ALBANY NY 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 33(48) 8(56) X(56) X(56) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) ALBANY NY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 3( 3) 26(29) 33(62) 6(68) X(68) X(68) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 12(12) 65(77) 8(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 37(38) 11(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) ISLIP NY 34 X 5( 5) 61(66) 15(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) 22(22) 17(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 10(10) 59(69) 12(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) 20(20) 12(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 4( 4) 41(45) 22(67) 5(72) X(72) X(72) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X 4( 4) 37(41) 21(62) 5(67) 1(68) X(68) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 19(44) 5(49) X(49) X(49) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 4( 4) 40(44) 14(58) 5(63) X(63) X(63) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 16(30) 7(37) X(37) X(37) ALLENTOWN PA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 15(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 10(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) DOVER DE 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 2 11(13) 18(31) 4(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 2 13(15) 11(26) 4(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 2 10(12) 7(19) 2(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) RICHMOND VA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 21
2021-08-21 04:59:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210259 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...HENRI CONTINUING NORTHWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 73.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Warning between Greenwich, CT to Flushing, NY and Flushing to Oyster Bay, NY. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode Island, east to Woods Hole, Massachusetts, including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey, including New York City. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Saturday Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected through Saturday, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected late Saturday or Saturday night. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-08-21 04:59:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210259 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING BETWEEN GREENWICH CT TO FLUSHING NY AND FLUSHING TO OYSTER BAY NY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND EAST TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK TO MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK * NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * CAPE COD BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. * COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 73.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 73.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 73.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N 72.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.2N 72.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.4N 73.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.2N 73.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 42.7N 72.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 43.5N 67.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 73.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2021-08-21 04:58:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 337 FONT12 KNHC 210258 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCA MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 15 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) TUXPAN MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TUXPAN MX 50 69 X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) TUXPAN MX 64 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) VERACRUZ MX 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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