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Tropical Storm Marty Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-23 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 111.0W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 111.0 West. Marty is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, and Marty is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-23 10:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 0900 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 113.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.4N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.2N 118.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.1N 120.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.0N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Henri Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-23 04:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230243 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Henri Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Henri has continued to weaken over land and synoptic surface observations indicate that its maximum winds have decreased to near 25 kt. A little more weakening is likely during the next 48 hours, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicate that the system will be post-tropical after its expected re-emergence into the Atlantic in 36 hours or so. Beyond 48 hours the dynamical guidance suggests that the system will lose its identity. Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that the center is moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. Henri is interacting with another cyclonic circulation over the northeastern United States. As a result of this interaction, the tropical cyclone is expected to briefly come to a halt overnight, turn toward the east-northeast on Monday, and continue an east-northeastward motion into Tuesday. The official forecast track is similar to the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. Although Henri's winds are weakening, the cyclone will still continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two. This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on Henri. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 41.9N 73.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/1200Z 42.1N 73.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/0000Z 42.4N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1200Z 42.8N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/0000Z 43.4N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2021-08-23 04:43:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 230243 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WORCESTER MA 34 3 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 7 9(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BOSTON MA 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HYANNIS MA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 1 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 5 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HARTFORD CT 34 6 8(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW LONDON CT 34 2 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ALBANY NY 34 10 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 8 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONTAUK POINT 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Henri Public Advisory Number 28A
2021-08-23 01:46:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 222346 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...HENRI WEAKENING BUT STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.7N 72.8W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM NE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri was located by surface observations near latitude 41.7 North, longitude 72.8 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast Monday afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across northern Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12 inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Henri at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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