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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 30
2021-08-20 22:45:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202045 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The satellite presentation of Grace has greatly improved over the past several hours. Deep convection has become more concentrated over the center, and the central dense overcast now appears more symmetric. Dropsonde winds and peak 850-mb flight level wind measured by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around midday were consistent with an intensity of around 75 kt. However, the surface pressure has been gradually falling throughout the day, and recent satellite data suggest the hurricane is becoming better organized. Therefore, the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt for this advisory, which is supported by the latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT estimate. Given the high oceanic heat content within the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, additional strengthening is expected through Grace's landfall tonight. The 10-15 kt of northerly vertical wind shear over Grace does not appear to be having much of a negative effect on the cyclone at this time. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, and is closest to the statistical-dynamical models DSHP and LGEM. The current forecast shows Grace making landfall within the next 12-18 h. Once the center of Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico, the cyclone should rapidly weaken and then dissipate by 48 h. However, its remnants appear likely to move into the eastern Pacific and lead to the development of a new tropical cyclone in that basin later this weekend or early next week. Earlier reconnaissance data indicate that Grace has slowed down a bit today, and its initial motion is estimated to be 265/9 kt. This general motion should continue through landfall as Grace is steered by a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The official NHC track forecast is slightly slower, but otherwise very similar to the previous one and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico beginning this evening within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 20.5N 95.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.4N 96.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 21/1800Z 19.9N 98.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0600Z 19.5N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Hurricane Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2021-08-20 22:44:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 202044 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPICO MX 34 8 21(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) TUXPAN MX 34 88 9(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) TUXPAN MX 50 15 31(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) TUXPAN MX 64 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 34 60 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 30
2021-08-20 22:44:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 202044 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...GRACE CONTINUES STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 95.1W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 95.1 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by this evening. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 30
2021-08-20 22:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 202043 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.1W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 90SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.1W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 96.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.9N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.5N 101.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 95.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-08-20 22:42:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202042 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Henri appears to be slowly gaining strength. Deep convection has been increasing during the past few hours and the upper-level outflow continues to become better established on the east side of the circulation. However, the low-level center is still located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to ongoing northerly wind shear. An ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds of around 55 kt, with the strongest winds on the southeast side of the circulation. Based on this data, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Henri again this evening and the data the plane collects will be very helpful in estimating the storm's strength and structure. The tropical storm appears to be making the advertised turn to the right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 335/6 kt. A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to accelerate to the north on Saturday. The latest model runs have generally trended to the left again and are a bit faster, with most showing landfall in about 48 hours. Most of the models now show a slight left turn before landfall as Henri gets caught in the circulation of the aforementioned trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members continue to span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids, the official track forecast has again been nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring on Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward. The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease tonight, and the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern developing over the storm through the weekend. These more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane tonight or early Saturday, with additional intensification expected into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of Long Island and New England, it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur by day 3 and the system should dissipate in 4 or 5 days. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible Sunday across portions of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 32.8N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 35.8N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 38.9N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 42.0N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 42.9N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/1800Z 43.8N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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