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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-07-15 22:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 152034 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-07-15 16:37:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151437 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Earlier this morning, an eye began to appear in satellite imagery. However, since that time the convection has eroded slightly over the southwestern portion of the circulation, making that feature somewhat obscured. This could be a sign that an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is underway. Although the eye is not readily apparent in satellite, Felicia has a well-defined inner core structure with persistent and very cold cloud tops surrounding much of the center. The Dvorak T-numbers continue to rise, and the latest blend of the available values from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT support increasing the initial intensity to 80 kt for this advisory. Felicia continues to make a gradual turn to the left, and the initial motion is now 270/10 kt. The ridge currently to the north of the hurricane is foreast to shift to its northwest over the next day or so, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple of days. By early next week, Felicia should once again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. Rapid intensification (RI) has continued, and Felicia's winds have increased by 50 kt since early yesterday morning. Aside from a possible pause in the cyclone's intensification in the near-term due to the ERC, the environment of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that have been supporting the strengthening should continue around the cyclone over the next 24 h. By late Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the bulk of the guidance through 24 h due to the RI factors currently in place. Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 15.2N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-07-15 16:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 195 FOPZ11 KNHC 151436 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 92 6(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 57 25(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 120W 64 12 26(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 56(80) 9(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 16(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 12(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 38(68) 2(70) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 1(34) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 34(47) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 6
2021-07-15 16:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 151436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 118.6W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 118.6 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-southwest is expected by Friday with this motion expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia has rapidly intensified over the past day or so, and additional strengthening is expected through early Friday. Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-07-15 16:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151436 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC THU JUL 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 119.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 132.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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