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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 8
2021-07-16 04:50:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160250 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 120.2W ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 120.2 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-southwest is expected by Friday, and a westward motion is forecast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected tonight, and Felicia is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight. Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-07-16 04:50:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 160250 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 6( 6) 70(76) 18(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 33(34) 37(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 12(12) 31(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 62(67) 14(81) X(81) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 13(43) 1(44) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21) X(21) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 26(50) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-07-16 04:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160249 TCMEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 120.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 120.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 120.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-07-15 22:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152035 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The evolution of Felicia's satellite imagery since last night suggested that an eyewall replacement cycle had occurred, and recently has completed. For the past several hours, an eye has been occasionally appearing while surrounded by cloud tops as cold as -80 degrees C. With this eye feature becoming somewhat clearer, the corresponding Dvorak-T numbers have increased. Based on a blend of these latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to 85 kt. Felicia continues to move west, or 270/09kt. The ridge currently to the north of the hurricane is forecast to shift the northwest of Felicia by tonight, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple of days. By early next week, the hurricane should once again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. The small inner-core structure of Felicia is well established, and the cyclone should remain in an environment of low shear and over warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 12-24 h. This should allow for some additional strengthening. By late Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains slightly above the bulk of the guidance through 24 h due to the aforementioned favorable conditions currently in place for strengthening. Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.2N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 7
2021-07-15 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 903 WTPZ31 KNHC 152034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 ...FELICIA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 119.4W ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 119.4 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-southwest is expected by Friday with a westward motion expected this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight. Some slow weakening is possible by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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