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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 10
2021-07-16 16:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 121.6W ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 121.6 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur by late tonight or early Saturday, with a westward motion expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia is a strong category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today, and Felicia could become a category 4 hurricane later this morning. Slow weakening is expected to begin by tonight, and continue through the weekend and into early next week. Felicia remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-07-16 10:59:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160859 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Tiny Felicia has continued to intensify tonight. Earlier SSMIS microwave imagery showed that the hurricane was maintaining a closed circular eyewall and cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye on infrared satellite have continued to cool below -70 C. Scatterometer data from an ASCAT-A pass at 0418 UTC also indicated the small size of Felicia's wind field, with peak 34-kt wind radii only extending roughly 50 nm from the center in the northern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 0600 UTC were both T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate was T5.4/100 kt. A blend of these intensity estimates support a current intensity of 100 kt, making Felicia the first major hurricane in the East Pacific basin this year. Felicia now appears to be moving slightly south of due west with the latest estimated motion at 260/8 kt. Now that the strongest deep-layer ridging is positioned northwest of the hurricane, a west-southwestward motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Afterwards, a narrow ridge axis shifts back north of Felicia, and the cyclone is expected to resume a more due westward motion between 24 to 72 hours. In the latter portion of the track forecast, the hurricane will come under the influence of a stronger mid-level ridge located north of Hawaii, resulting in another leftward turn by the end of the forecast period. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement for the majority of the forecast. The official NHC forecast is a touch south of the previous track and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Additional short-term intensification is forecast while Felicia remains in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear between 5-10 kt and warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) between 27-28 C. Thereafter, mid-level humidity values are forecasted by the ECMWF-SHIPS guidance to drop below 50 percent as SSTs also gradually decrease. However, both deep-layer (200-850 hPa) and mid-level vertical wind shear are expected to remain light and easterly through at least the next 72 hours. Light easterly shear in combination with marginally warm SSTs are common environmental factors associated with major hurricanes that develop annular characteristics, and these storms are known to weaken at a slower than typical rate. To account for this possibility, the intensity forecast only shows very gradual weakening between 24 to 48 hours which is above the majority of the intensity guidance but lies closest to CTCI (COAMPS-TC). Afterwards, Felicia's weakening rate is forecast to increase as SSTs cool further, and northwesterly vertical-wind shear impinges on the cyclone by the end of the forecast period. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is closer to the mean of the intensity guidance and is near the HCCA intensity consensus aid at 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 15.1N 121.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 14.6N 126.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 14.8N 130.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 14.6N 134.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 13.8N 137.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Hurricane Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-07-16 10:47:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 160847 PWSEP1 HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0900 UTC FRI JUL 16 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 26(26) 63(89) 3(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 125W 50 X 2( 2) 57(59) 7(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 34(34) 8(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 69(77) 5(82) 1(83) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 7(49) X(49) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 15(54) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Hurricane Felicia Public Advisory Number 9
2021-07-16 10:47:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 764 WTPZ31 KNHC 160847 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Felicia Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021 ...FELICIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...FURTHER STRENGTHENING FORECASTED... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 121.0W ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Felicia was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 121.0 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general west-southwest motion is expected over the next 24 hours with a turn back to the west expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Felicia is now category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and additional strengthening is forecast today. This will be followed by a very gradual weakening trend through the end of the weekend. Felicia is a small tropical cyclone, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-07-16 04:53:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160253 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this evening. Infrared temperatures have significantly warmed within the eye during the past couple hours, and deep convection within the eyewall has become more symmetric. A closed ring of infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -65 to -70 deg Celsius now completely surrounds the eye of Felicia. Based on these current satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt for this advisory. This lies between the TAFB subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of 90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimates of around 100 kt. Warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear along Felicia's forecast track are expected to allow for some additional strengthening in the short-term, especially since dry air in the surrounding environment has had minimal impact on the cyclone's intensification up to this point. The official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward and now brings Felicia to major hurricane status (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) within 12 h. The NHC forecast remains higher than the guidance consensus through the first 72 h, then generally follows the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) thereafter. The cyclone is forecast to slowly weaken this weekend within a drier, more stable mid-level environment. However, the forecast track keeps Felicia south of the 26 deg C isotherm, which should allow the cyclone to maintain its hurricane intensity through much of the forecast period. Felicia is still moving almost due west at around 8 kt. As the steering ridge becomes positioned to the northwest of Felicia, the cyclone is expected to move west-southwestward during the next day or so. Then, Felicia is forecast to resume a more westward motion for the next several days as the cyclone moves to the south of a subtropical ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered through much of the period. The official NHC forecast is adjusted just a bit slower and slightly farther north than the previous one, bringing it closer to the usually reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.2N 120.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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