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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-07-14 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141450 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Recent satellite data indicate that the tropical cyclone has continued to organize this morning. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 0900 UTC revealed a well-defined banding feature that wrapped more than half-way around the center and early-light visible images show a developing CDO with the center located beneath the eastern portion of the cold cloud tops. Based on Dvorak T-numbers of 3.0 and 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, the initial intensity was increased to 40 kt on a Tropical Cyclone Update issued at 1315 UTC. With the continued increase in organization, the advisory intensity has been raised to 45 kt. Felicia is located over warm SSTs and in an area of low vertical wind shear. Given the recent development of a small inner-core, it seems likely that Felicia will continue to strengthen during the next couple of days. The only caveat appears to be nearby dry air that could get entrained into the circulation of the relatively small tropical cyclone and cause some disruptions in the intensification process. Although most of the intensity guidance is not extremely bullish and the rapid intensification probabilities are not particularly high, the NHC forecast predicts steady strengthening and brings Felicia to hurricane status within 24 hours. The NHC wind speed forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of the guidance. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Felicia should steer the storm west-northwestward to westward during the next 12-24 h. After that time, the orientation of the ridge shifts slightly which is expected to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the middle portion of the forecast period. The dynamical model guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the TVCE consensus aid. The guidance envelope did shift a little southward from the previous cycle, and the new NHC forecast has been modified accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 14.3N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 14.9N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 15.5N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.3N 120.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 15.0N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 14.9N 124.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 14.8N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Felicia Public Advisory Number 2
2021-07-14 16:46:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 141446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 ...FELICIA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 114.1W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 114.1 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Thursday. A turn toward the west is expected by Thursday night, and a west or west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely and Felicia is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-07-14 16:46:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 141446 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 93 X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 115W 50 37 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 115W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 1 7( 8) 60(68) 19(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 29(30) 24(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 46(51) 22(73) 1(74) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 19(35) X(35) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 29(44) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-07-14 16:45:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 141445 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 1500 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.1W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.1W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.9N 115.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.3N 120.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.0N 122.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.9N 124.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.8N 132.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-07-14 10:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 129 WTPZ41 KNHC 140835 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to become better organized, with banding near and west of the low-level center. In addition, recent scatterometer data shows that the circulation has become better better defined. Based on this, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on reliable-looking scatterometer winds and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 295/15. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Some decrease in the forward speed is likely, especially around 72-96 h when a mid- to upper-level trough north of the cyclone temporarily weakens the ridge. The forecast track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope close to the consensus models. The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of light vertical wind shear through the forecast period. However, the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track cool through 96 h, and the system is expected to move into a dryer air mass. The intensity guidance generally forecasts the cyclone to reach its peak intensity in 48-72 h followed by weakening, and the intensity forecast follows the general trend of the guidance. The forecast peak intensity of 65 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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