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Tropical Storm Felicia Public Advisory Number 4
2021-07-15 04:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 ...FELICIA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 116.7W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 116.7 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual turn to the west is expected on Thursday, followed by a west-southwestward motion on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days, and Felicia is forecast to become a hurricane late tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-07-14 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in organization and convective banding in association with Felicia. The central dense overcast has also expanded and become more symmetric since this morning. A 1630 UTC GMI microwave overpass revealed a formative mid-level eye but some dry air was noted around the northwestern portion of the circulation. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), but given the continued increase in organization the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, the high end of the satellite estimates. Continued strengthening is expected while Felicia remains over warm SSTs and within an area of vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The intensity guidance is still not overly bullish on strengthening, perhaps due to nearby dry mid-level air that could cause some pauses in the deepening process of the small tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance through 24-36 h, and could be conservative if dry air does not disrupt the inner core. After 48 hours, slightly lower SSTs and a more stable air mass just to the north of the storm is likely to cause gradual weakening, but Felicia is forecast to remain a hurricane through much of the forecast period. Felicia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should continue to steer Felicia west-northwestward to westward through early Thursday. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly and become oriented northeast to southwest, which is expected to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward in 36-48 hours and a west-southwestward to westward motion should then continue through the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, resulting in higher than normal confidence in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-07-14 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 142033 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 115W 50 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 120W 34 2 47(49) 41(90) 3(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 120W 50 X 7( 7) 49(56) 5(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 15N 120W 64 X 1( 1) 30(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 62(72) 10(82) X(82) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 9(44) X(44) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 22(58) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Felicia Public Advisory Number 3
2021-07-14 22:33:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 142033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 115.3W ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 115.3 West. Felicia is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Thursday. A turn toward the west is expected by Thursday night, and a westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Felicia is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-07-14 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 142032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC WED JUL 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 118.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.2N 121.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 123.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.9N 125.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.9N 128.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.8N 133.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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