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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 33
2021-07-08 11:01:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 080901 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 Doppler radar and surface observation indicate that the center of Elsa is moving into southern South Carolina at this time. The organization of the storm has changed little during the past several hours, with a complex of bands in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is 35 kt, and these winds are occurring along an area of the coast and coastal waters well southeast of the center. The initial motion is now 035/16. The track guidance is in good agreement that Elsa should accelerate northeastward during the next few days as it becomes entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, with the track carrying the system across the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states during the next 24 hours, then near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada. The new forecast track is basically an update of the previous track, and it is very close to the consensus models. Rawinsonde data and GOES-16 RGB airmass imagery show an upper-level shortwave trough over the southeastern United States to the west of Elsa, and the global models forecast this system to follow the cyclone northeastward and take on a negative tilt. This should result in increasing upper-level divergence over Elsa, which in turn should lead to some strengthening as the storm moves near or over the east coast of the United States. The 00Z ECMWF model is not as bullish on intensification as its previous run, but it and the 00Z UKMET still call for strengthening, and even the weaker GFS forecasts the favorable upper-air pattern. Based on this, the new intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening than the previous forecast. Based on the new forecast track, the tropical storm warning has been extended northward along the United States east coast to Massachusetts. Non-tropical gale warnings are in effect for the coastal areas to the north of the tropical storm warning due to the likelihood that Elsa will become extratropical as it reaches that area. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the Carolinas Thursday, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England Thursday and Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina this morning. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina starting later today and the mid-Atlantic by this afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gale winds are expected over the portions of the New Hampshire and Maine coasts by late Friday or Friday night, and those conditions are possible over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 33.4N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1800Z 35.5N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 10/0600Z 46.9N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1800Z 51.9N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z 56.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2021-07-08 10:43:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 080843 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) X(33) X(33) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WORCESTER MA 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HYANNIS MA 34 X 1( 1) 33(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 1( 1) 43(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 34(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 1( 1) 37(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEWARK NJ 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TRENTON NJ 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 15(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DOVER DE 34 X 23(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) DOVER DE 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 36(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 46(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 47(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) WALLOPS CDA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) DANVILLE VA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 44(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X 45(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GREENSBORO NC 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 12 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ROCKY MT NC 34 5 33(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 34 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BALD HEAD ISL 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FLORENCE SC 34 38 X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) COLUMBIA SC 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MYRTLE BEACH 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GEORGETOWN SC 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLESTON SC 34 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 32A
2021-07-08 07:53:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 080553 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...CENTER OF ELSA MOVING THROUGH EASTERN GEORGIA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.7N 82.0W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this morning, followed by a faster northeastward motion later today. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia this morning, over South Carolina and North Carolina later today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday. Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some re-strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mostly southeast of the center near the coast. A few hours ago, wind gusts of 75 to 80 mph (120 to 130 km/h) were reported from Weatherflow stations near Tybee Island, Georgia, in a severe thunderstorm in an outer rain band. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast for the next several hours, along the South Carolina coast this morning, along the North Carolina coast later today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches from late tonight through tonight are possible, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. From the Mid-Atlantic into New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches are possible today into Friday. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this morning from southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2021-07-08 04:59:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 080259 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 13(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X 16(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) DANVILLE VA 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 23(23) 11(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X 22(22) 10(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 19(19) 11(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 20(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 32(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 30(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BALD HEAD ISL 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 16 16(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) COLUMBIA SC 34 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LITTLE RIVER 34 4 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MYRTLE BEACH 34 6 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GEORGETOWN SC 34 13 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLESTON SC 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) AUGUSTA GA 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WAYCROSS GA 34 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 32
2021-07-08 04:59:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 080259 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the eastern semicircle of the storm. The current wind speed is set to 40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt, and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at least 40 kt. Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday, more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number of the models suggest re-intensification could take place. It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however, are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that model's relatively weaker solution. The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a little faster, about 14 kt. Elsa should move northeastward at an increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast since guidance remains in good agreement. Elsa is likely to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical low by day 4. There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas. Areas to the north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall, from North Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southern New England states and New York by Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 32.1N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 08/1200Z 34.1N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 37.1N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 40.4N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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