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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 25
2021-07-06 16:38:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 061438 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA...HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 82.8W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 82.8W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 82.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.6N 82.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 82.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 24A
2021-07-06 13:46:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 061146 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...ELSA JUST WEST OF KEY WEST... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 82.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida * Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 82.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north by tonight. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently measured a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h). The Key West International Airport also recently measured a wind gust of 48 mph (77 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of central and western Cuba during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are beginning in the warning area in the Florida Keys and are expected along the Florida west coast later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning late tonight and in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2021-07-06 10:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 060848 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) X(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 21(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 11(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) 10(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 4( 5) 28(33) 9(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 35(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 10(10) 50(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) THE VILLAGES 34 X 23(23) 34(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) THE VILLAGES 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X 11(11) 16(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 34 47 12(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) NAPLES FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 14 26(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) VENICE FL 34 17 72(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) VENICE FL 50 1 37(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) VENICE FL 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 2 77(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) TAMPA FL 50 X 31(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) TAMPA FL 64 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 47(48) 23(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 10(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 24
2021-07-06 10:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 060848 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...ELSA NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 82.4W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the west-central and Big Bend coast of Florida from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Georgia coast and portions of the South Carolina coast from the Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida * Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 82.4 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north by tonight. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today and continuing into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after it moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently measured a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of central and western Cuba during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are beginning in the warning area in the Florida Keys and are expected along the Florida west coast later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning late tonight and in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 24
2021-07-06 10:47:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 821 WTNT25 KNHC 060847 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BIG BEND COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GEORGIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 82.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 82.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 82.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.7N 82.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.4N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.9N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.5N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 45.9N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 54.7N 48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 82.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/REINHART
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