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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-06-19 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 190243 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 7 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 11(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) WHITING FLD FL 34 13 10(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PENSACOLA FL 34 16 10(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 870W 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 63 7(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MORGAN CITY LA 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) LAFAYETTE LA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-06-19 04:42:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190242 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Deep convection has been trying to consolidate closer to the estimated center of Dolores over the past several hours, suggesting that the broad circulation of the cyclone may be starting to contract. The CIMSS ADT and SATCON indicated some strengthening since the previous advisory, which justified increasing the storm's intensity to 45 kt for the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory. The recent Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are in agreement with this value, and therefore 45 kt will be this advisory's initial intensity. Dolores is moving to the northwest at 8 kt around the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its east. A turn to the north-northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to occur through Sunday morning. There is about 120 n mi of spread in the track guidance at 24 h, and with the cyclone's angle of approach to the coast of Mexico, a variation in the track produces a large difference in the coastlines potentially affected by Dolores. The westernmost guidance has the center of the cyclone clipping the coast just north of Manzanillo in about 24 h, while the easternmost solutions make landfall in about 18 h near Punta San Telmo. Overall, the guidance has shifted little this evening, and therefore the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, which lies near the various multi-model track consensus. This track would take the center of Dolores across the coast between Punta San Telmo and Manzanillo early Saturday afternoon. The surrounding environmental conditions are favorable for Dolores to continue to strengthen, with the main inhibiting factor being the broad circulation as indicated by an ASCAT overpass earlier this afternoon. Dolores is currently forecast to peak at an intensity of 55 kt by late Saturday morning before making landfall. How much the circulation consolidates over the next 12-18 h will likely determine if the peak intensity of Dolores prior to landfall is higher or lower than indicated. After landfall, Dolores should rapidly weaken over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, with the guidance in good agreement on dissipating the cyclone by Sunday morning. Other than indicating an earlier dissipation, the new NHC intensity forecast has changed little from the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening tonight and early on Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday afternoon. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.3N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.6N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 20.0N 104.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 22.6N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-06-19 04:39:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 401 FOPZ14 KNHC 190238 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 29 32(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) MANZANILLO 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) ZIHUATANEJO 34 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 4
2021-06-19 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190238 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...DOLORES EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TONIGHT... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 102.8W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 102.8 West. Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed is expected tonight through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday afternoon. Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico through early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until Dolores makes landfall Saturday afternoon. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter, and Dolores should dissipate inland by Sunday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning later tonight or on Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-06-19 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190237 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.8W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.8W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.6N 103.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N 104.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.6N 104.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 102.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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