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Remnants of Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-20 10:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200834 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Dolores Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Satellite imagery and limited surface observations indicate that Dolores has dissipated over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico. Although a mid-level circulation is evident in satellite imagery, this structure no longer extends down to the surface. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. Although the system has dissipated, the remnants of Dolores remain capable of producing heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico today, which could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. For more information, see products issued by your national meteorological service. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through today, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 23.5N 103.7W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Remnants of Dolores Public Advisory Number 9
2021-06-20 10:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200834 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Dolores Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 ...DOLORES HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND MEXICO... ...STILL A THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 103.7W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Dolores were located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 103.7 West. The remnants are moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the remnants of Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Bands around the south and southwest side of the remnants of Dolores will produce an additional 2 to 4 inches with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across southwest Mexico through today. This could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Remnants of Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-06-20 10:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200834 PWSEP4 REMNANTS OF DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF DOLORES WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Remnants of Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-06-20 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200833 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 103.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 103.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 103.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 10A
2021-06-20 07:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200538 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 100 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM CLAUDETTE PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 86.7W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM S OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF ATLANTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm warnings will likely be required for a portion of the watch area this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 86.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today. On the forecast track, the system should cross portions of the southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and move over the coasts of the Carolinas into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are mainly occurring over the Gulf of Mexico well to the south of the center. Little change in strength is expected today. However, the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across northern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and South and North Carolina. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are possible across these areas. Storm total rainfall is expected to be 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch totals in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia, and across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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