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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 12
2021-06-15 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 ...CARLOS TRYING TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 132.6W ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 132.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued westward motion along with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-06-15 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 132.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 132.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 132.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.7N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.9N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 132.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Bill Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-06-15 11:19:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 914 WTNT22 KNHC 150918 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 67.2W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 67.2W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 68.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 41.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 44.7N 57.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 48.6N 52.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 67.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-06-15 11:16:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 853 FOPZ13 KNHC 150857 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 11
2021-06-15 11:16:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 902 WTPZ33 KNHC 150857 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 ...CARLOS COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS SOON AS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 131.8W ABOUT 1695 MI...2725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 131.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown and turn toward the west by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Carlos is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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