je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-06-14 16:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 141439 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-14 10:36:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140835 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlos Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The satellite presentation of Carlos has continued to erode early this morning, with only three remnant convective cells noted rotating around the center. As a result, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have fallen sharply. Thus, the initial intensity has also been lowered to 35 kt, which could be generous. The initial motion estimate is 255/06 kt. Carlos is forecast by the global and regional models to be steered west-southwestward to westward throughout the 5-day period by a strong low- to mid-level subtropical ridge situated to its north and northwest. The latest model guidance has come into much better agreement on this track scenario, especially compared to this time yesterday, and the new NHC track forecast follows suit and lies close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus track models. Although sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain warm enough to support a tropical cyclone, the continued ingestion of cooler, drier, and more stable air that now completely surrounds Carlos is forecast to continue to erode the central deep convection, with the cyclone weakening a tropical depression later today. By 36-48h, southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 20 kt is expected to hasten the weakening process, resulting in Carlos degenerating into a remnant low. Although there will likely be periodic short-lived bursts of convection, especially at night, the general trend should be gradual weakening throughout the 120-h forecast period, perhaps even faster than indicated by the official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 11.4N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
carlos
storm
Tropical Storm Carlos Public Advisory Number 7
2021-06-14 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlos Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...CARLOS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 127.8W ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 127.8 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the west-southwest or west is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and Carlos is forecast to become a tropical depression later today, and degenerate to a remnant low by late Tuesday or Wednesday. Carlos is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
carlos
storm
Tropical Storm Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-06-14 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
speed
wind
carlos
Tropical Storm Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-14 10:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.2N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.8N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.4N 130.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.2N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.2N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.5N 134.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 11.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 137.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
carlos
storm
advisory
Sites : [528] [529] [530] [531] [532] [533] [534] [535] [536] [537] [538] [539] [540] [541] [542] [543] [544] [545] [546] [547] next »