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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 14
2021-06-16 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 549 WTPZ33 KNHC 160235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 ...CARLOS STILL BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 134.2W ABOUT 1850 MI...2975 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 134.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow and dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-06-16 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 134.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 134.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 134.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-16 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160233 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Bill has become extratropical over the north Atlantic. A partial scatterometer overpass showed 35-40 kt winds to the east-southeast of the center, so the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 45 kt. The extratropical low should continue to weaken and move quickly toward the northeast until it weakens to a trough between 12-24 h. This is the last advisory on Bill by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 43.5N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 16/1200Z 46.5N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Bill Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-16 04:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 979 WTNT22 KNHC 160232 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 57.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 57.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 57.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 46.5N 53.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.5N 57.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-15 22:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152039 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 Dry, stable air and strong southwesterly shear continue to take their toll on Carlos. The only deep convection associated with the depression consists of a very small cluster just south of the center, and another about 90 n mi northwest of the center. This meager amount of shower activity is not sufficient to be considered organized deep convection. Therefore if no significant convection develops soon, then Carlos will be declared a remnant low. Despite the lack of convection, a pair recent ASCAT overpasses showed several wind vectors of 27-30 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The environment surrounding the depression is not forecast to improve, so the vortex should gradually spin down, with dissipation expected within a few days. Carlos is moving just south of due west at 8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the remainder of the cyclone's existence, except for perhaps a slight decrease in forward speed and turn to the right, as the system is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 9.8N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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