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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-14 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142042 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 The convective burst that occurred this morning near the center of Carlos has been gradually dissipating throughout the day. Satellite imagery shows dry and stable air being entrained into the circulation and the cyclone's center has become partially exposed. The latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB indicates that Carlos has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, and this will be the initial advisory intensity. Carlos is moving west-southwest at 8 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. Most of the track guidance is in good agreement on keeping this ridge intact over the next several days, forcing Carlos on the same west-southwest trajectory for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the west by midweek. The latest NHC track forecast was adjusted to be a little faster and to the south of the previous one to better match the trend in the guidance, and is now near the northern end of the multi-model consensus. The depression is forecast to continue to traverse a dry and stable airmass for the remainder of the week, and ongoing intrusions of this air should inhibit the cyclone from producing long-lived convection. The lack of deep convection should cause Carlos to continue a slow weakening trend and eventually degenerate into a remnant low. The official NHC forecast calls for this transition to to occur by 48 h. However, it could occur sooner than this if organized deep convection fails to regenerate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 10.9N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 10.5N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 10.1N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 9.9N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 9.9N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 9.9N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 10.1N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 10.3N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-06-14 22:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 142042 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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carlos
Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 9
2021-06-14 22:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142041 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021 ...CARLOS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 130.0W ABOUT 1560 MI...2515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 130.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so followed by a turn to the west. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Carlos is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by midweek. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-06-14 22:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142041 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.0W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 130.0W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.5N 131.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.1N 132.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.9N 134.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.9N 135.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 10.1N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 10.3N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 130.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-14 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142035 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Deep convection has weakened some this afternoon near the center of the depression, and the cloud pattern definitely is showing signs of shear. However, visible satellite imagery still indicates that it has a tight circulation, and past experience suggests with that kind of low-level structure, the depression is close to becoming a tropical storm. None of the conventional intensity estimates, however, show the system as a storm yet, and since scatterometer data also totally missed this morning, 30 kt will stay as the initial wind speed. No change is made to the intensity forecast from the last advisory, with the system having about 24 hours of time over marginally warm water to intensify. Afterwards, the cyclone should quickly lose convection and transition into an extratropical low, and dissipate near Newfoundland. This forecast is somewhat higher than the the guidance consensus on this cycle, but given that I was on the low side on the first forecast compared to guidance, I decided to hold steady and not waffle like the models are prone to doing. The depression is moving northeastward at about 16 kt, a little slower than before. Model guidance is in excellent agreement on large trough over eastern North America causing the depression to accelerate quite a bit in that general direction during the next day or two. The northeastward track is forecast to continue until the system dissipates near Newfoundland on Wednesday while it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The model guidance has shifted a little south of the previous advisory, and the NHC track prediction is shifted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 35.5N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 37.5N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 40.9N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 45.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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