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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-11-11 09:54:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 110854 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 34.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 70SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 34.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.9N 33.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 75SE 110SW 165NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.8N 29.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 26.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 24.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.1N 23.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 32.5N 21.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 34.0N 20.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 34.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 43A
2020-11-11 06:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 110539 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 43A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...ETA'S RAIN BANDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 84.4W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Gulf coast today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.4 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast today, and Eta could be near hurricane strength late this morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Buoy 42026 from the University of South Florida located about 75 miles northeast of the center of Eta recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall overnight: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20 inches. Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday: West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida through Friday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by late Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba overnight. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 43
2020-11-11 03:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 110254 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 Eta has been maintaining a large cluster of deep convection over the northeastern portion of its circulation this evening. NWS Doppler radar data from Key West is showing a well-defined mid-level circulation in that area, but NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data so far still indicates that the low-level center is located near the southwestern portion of the convective mass. However, it is possible that the center will re-form closer to the mid-level center overnight. The plane has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt, and SFMR winds of 52 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt. Eta's initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/8 kt. There has once again been a significant eastward shift in the 18Z dynamical model guidance, with the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models all showing a faster north-northeastward motion toward the Florida west coast. As a result, the NHC forecast has again been shifted eastward and lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus through 36 h. After that time, the NHC track is slower and west of the bulk of the consensus aids as the ECMWF still shows Eta weakening and lingering near the Florida Big Bend. While the new track has been shifted significantly eastward after 36 h or so, some continuity with the previous forecast is maintained with a slower northward motion between the two model camps. While there is increasing confidence in the faster north-northeastward motion in the short-term, there is still considerable uncertainty by 48 hours and beyond, and further adjustments to the track forecast could be required overnight. Some additional strengthening is likely overnight and Wednesday while Eta remains over warm water and within an area of low-to-moderate vertical wind shear. If the center re-forms closer to the deep convection, Eta could re-gain hurricane status within the next 12-24 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs are likely to result in some weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and HCCA model guidance. Given the eastward shift in the track and the expected faster motion of Eta, a Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are being issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida. Additional warnings could be required early Wednesday. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may be needed overnight. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and south Florida through tonight, and spread northward across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding is possible in south Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 23.8N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 25.0N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 26.5N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 27.7N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 28.8N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 29.7N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/0000Z 30.3N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/0000Z 30.8N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2020-11-11 03:54:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 110254 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 11(21) 4(25) X(25) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) X(15) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 11(24) 4(28) X(28) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 9(18) 3(21) X(21) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 16(23) 9(32) 1(33) X(33) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 2(21) X(21) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 16(27) 8(35) 2(37) X(37) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 6(20) 2(22) X(22) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 3(16) 3(19) X(19) PATRICK AFB 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 34 3 13(16) 6(22) 1(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) FT MYERS FL 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) VENICE FL 34 3 34(37) 18(55) 2(57) 1(58) 2(60) X(60) VENICE FL 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 3 17(20) 31(51) 8(59) 3(62) 2(64) X(64) TAMPA FL 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 6( 8) 25(33) 15(48) 5(53) 2(55) X(55) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 4(18) 2(20) X(20) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 4(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 43
2020-11-11 03:53:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 110253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ETA IS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 84.5W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach to the Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from north of the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Gulf coast early Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida on Wednesday, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday, and Eta could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall through tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20 inches. Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday: West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas overnight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by late Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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