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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 41
2020-11-10 15:51:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 885 WTNT24 KNHC 101451 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.1N 85.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 85.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 85.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.9N 85.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.6N 85.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.2N 85.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 86.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 30.1N 86.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 40A
2020-11-10 12:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101146 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 600 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...ETA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 85.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 85.3 West. Eta has been drifting southward this morning, but it is expected to become stationary again later today. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today and tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm). Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba today. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Latto
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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-10 09:48:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 100848 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of maximum wind. However, the storm is still entangled with an upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. The storm is moving due eastward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A trough to the north of the subtropical storm is expected to lift out, and Theta should be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Theta should transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Little change in intensity is expected during the next several days due to mixed environmental conditions. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable, which should be supportive of deep convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 29.2N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 29.7N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 31.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 31.4N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 32.2N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 33.1N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-11-10 09:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 100847 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Subtropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 2
2020-11-10 09:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 100847 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 ...THETA EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 39.5W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 39.5 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion across the eastern Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next few days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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