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Subtropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-11-10 15:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 101452 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-10 15:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 101452 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Theta continues to exhibit a mix of tropical and subtropical characteristics. The cyclone has a fairly compact radius of maximum winds with a central dense overcast over the northern portion of the circulation. However, there is a strong subtropical jet located just to the south of Theta, and strong upper-level winds in the surrounding environment in the presence of an upper trough. Based on this inconclusive data, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm for this advisory. An ASCAT-B overpass this morning revealed 50-kt winds in the northwest and southwest quadrants, with several 55-60 kt wind vectors, some of those vectors outside of the deep convection making them more believable. Based on this, the initial advisory intensity has been set to 60 kt. The storm is moving just north of due east, or 085/13 kt. Theta should continue to be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The latest model guidance is a little faster and slightly north of the previous forecast track, and so the latest NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly as well. Theta is still expected to transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable for the next couple of days, which should be supportive of deep convection. Therefore, little change is strength is indicated during that time. Some weakening is anticipated later in the forecast period as the airmass becomes more stable. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one primarily due to the higher initial intensity, and is near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 29.0N 37.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 29.1N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 29.7N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 30.4N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 31.1N 28.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 31.7N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 32.2N 23.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 33.0N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 34.3N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 41
2020-11-10 15:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101452 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...ETA MEANDERING JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 85.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 85.3 West. Eta has been nearly stationary this morning, and little motion is expected today. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this evening and continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today and tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm). Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba today. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Subtropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 3
2020-11-10 15:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 101452 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 ...THETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 37.4W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 37.4 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion across the eastern Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Some slow weakening is expected by later this week. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-11-10 15:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 101452 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 37.4W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 37.4W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 38.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.1N 35.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 33.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.4N 31.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.1N 28.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.7N 26.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.2N 23.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.0N 19.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.3N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 37.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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