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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 45A
2020-11-11 18:58:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 111758 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 45A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT ETA HAS WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 83.7W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Peninsula today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the coast of west-central coast of Florida today and tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center. A wind gust to 40 mph (64 km/h) was recently reported in Venice Beach, Florida, while a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was reported by a buoy just offshore Venice Beach. The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West and central Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Friday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will end across the Dry Tortugas this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45
2020-11-11 15:50:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 111449 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 15(18) 16(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 23(26) 23(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 20(21) 23(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 2 53(55) 15(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 18(18) 12(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 35(37) 19(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 7 65(72) 9(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) THE VILLAGES 50 X 31(31) 8(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) THE VILLAGES 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 4 40(44) 9(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ORLANDO FL 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 5 22(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PATRICK AFB 34 5 22(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 4 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 20 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FT MYERS FL 34 20 5(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) VENICE FL 34 93 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) VENICE FL 50 32 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) VENICE FL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 84 12(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) TAMPA FL 50 28 33(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) TAMPA FL 64 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 22 54(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CEDAR KEY FL 50 1 31(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 1 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) APALACHICOLA 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA NAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Eta Public Advisory Number 45
2020-11-11 15:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 111449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA... ...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 83.7W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM WSW OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast from Suwannee River to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Peninsula today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta could be near hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km), mainly northeast of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A sustained wind of 33 mph (53 km/h) and a gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) were recently measured by a Weatherflow observing station on Sanibel Island. Across the lower Florida Keys, a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (91 km/h) were recently reported at Sand Key. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West and central Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Friday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 7
2020-11-11 15:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 111444 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 ...THETA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 33.3W ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 33.3 West. Theta is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast over the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-11-11 15:44:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 111444 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 Theta's center continues to be devoid of deep convection, with the convective mass located primarily to the north of the center due to strong shear. A recent partial ASCAT overpass showed a slight decrease in the winds over the eastern semicircle. However, the pass did not sample the western portion of the circulation which has previously had the strongest winds. Based on the slightly lower ASCAT values, and the assumption that the rest of the vortex has spun down slightly due to the lack of convection over the center, the initial intensity is decreased to 50 kt. Theta is moving east-northeastward at 9 kt, steered by the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies to the north of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern is expected to remain in place through much of the weekend. By early next week, the ridge is forecast weaken ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This would cause the cyclone to slow its forward motion temporarily before it gets picked up by the trough. The latest NHC forecast is near the previous one through 72 h, and is a little slower during days 4-5 due to the slowing of the guidance. This latest forecast is very near the clustered track consensus models. Despite the strong shear and cool water temperatures, the instability aloft should continue to support deep convection for at least the next few days. The shear is forecast to lessen somewhat in a day or so, but will still be relatively strong. Since the cyclone has been weakening slowly in the current environment, it is anticipated that the pace of weakening may lessen during the next few days with the decrease in shear. Beyond that time, the upper-level winds are forecast to become more northerly, and at about the same time the instability is forecast to decrease. These factors should cause any remaining convection to dissipate, with Theta likely becoming post-tropical by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward from the previous one mainly due to the lower initial intensity and is near the IVCN and HCCA consensus model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 29.8N 33.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 30.3N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 30.7N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 31.1N 27.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 31.9N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 32.2N 20.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 34.7N 19.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto
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