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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-24 22:56:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 242056 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 The disturbance just north of Bermuda interacting with a mid- to upper-level low has developed a prominent band of deep convection within its eastern semicircle as well as a well-defined surface center. Additionally, the system is not displaying any significant baroclinicity (i.e., frontal boundaries), so it is not an extratropical cyclone. All of which indicates that the system has evolved into a subtropical cyclone. ASCAT-C scatterometer data from 1440Z suggested peak winds were around 40 kt, which is the basis for calling the system Subtropical Storm Teresa. The system is moving toward the northwest at 12 kt is it rounds the northern part of the mid- to upper-level low. By Saturday, Teresa should turn northward and then northeastward, as it begins to be caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast is based upon the TVCN track consensus technique. Teresa will not be long-lived. A developing extratropical system forming off of New England should absorb Teresa between 36 and 48 hours. Until then, the subtropical storm has a small window to intensify slightly while traversing lukewarm water and encountering moderate vertical shear. If deep convection develops near the system's center, then Teresa could evolve into a tropical storm. However, it is more likely that Teresa will remain a subtropical storm until dissipation in around two days. It is worth noting that Teresa will likely be the 9th so-called "shortie" of the 2021 hurricane season -- systems that are short- lived and relatively weak. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 34.5N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 35.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 36.3N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-09-24 22:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 242052 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 9
2021-09-24 22:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 242052 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 ...SAM'S INTENSIFICATION RESUMES AS THE HURRICANE SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 44.8W ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 44.8 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed and turn toward the west-northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next several days, and Sam is expected to become a major hurricane on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-24 22:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Teresa Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 64.5W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Teresa was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 64.5 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). Teresa should slow its forward motion and turn toward the north by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Teresa should dissipate in about two days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-24 22:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 078 FONT14 KNHC 242052 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 24 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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