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Summary for Tropical Storm Cindy (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-22 13:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CINDY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING FARTHER INLAND... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 the center of Cindy was located near 30.5, -93.7 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 11A
2017-06-22 13:34:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 221134 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 700 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 ...CINDY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING FARTHER INLAND... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 93.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 93.7 West. Cindy is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Friday. On the forecast track, Cindy will move into southeastern Arkansas early Friday, and into Tennessee later on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cindy should weaken to a tropical depression later this morning, and become a remnant low tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches over eastern Texas, western and central Louisiana, and southern and eastern Arkansas through Friday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over southern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, and extreme western Florida Panhandle are expected through Friday morning. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall is expected to begin and expand across parts of the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are expected through Friday morning. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions should subside in a few hours. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight from the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions to the central Gulf Coast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm CINDY Graphics
2017-06-22 10:56:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Jun 2017 08:56:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Jun 2017 09:22:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm CINDY Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-06-22 10:52:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220852 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Radar imagery from Slidell and Lake Charles, Louisiana along with surface synoptic data, particularly those from Calcasieu Pass Louisiana, indicate that the center of Cindy crossed the coast between Cameron Louisiana and Port Arthur Texas an hour or two ago. The observations from Calcasieu indicate that the intensity is now around 35 kt. Now that the center is inland, steady weakening will occur and the system should become a depression later today, and be reduced to a post-tropical remnant low tonight. In 2-3 days, or sooner, the remnant low of Cindy should become absorbed into a frontal zone over the eastern United States. The initial motion is a little faster, and is about 360/10 kt. Cindy should continue to move through a break in the subtropical ridge today, and gradually turn toward the northeast and east-northeast as it encounters mid-level westerly flow over the next couple of days. The official track forecast lies between the GFS and ECMWF predictions. Although Cindy is weakening, it will continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and the southeastern and eastern United States, along with the potential for life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 29.9N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/1800Z 31.4N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z 33.4N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 35.4N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 37.0N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm CINDY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-06-22 10:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 22 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 220852 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 0900 UTC THU JUN 22 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 23 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) LAFAYETTE LA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) JASPER TX 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KOUNTZE TX 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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