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Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 10A
2017-06-22 07:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 220553 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 100 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 ...CINDY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 93.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 93.6 West. Cindy is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north should occur later this morning, with a turn toward the northeast expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will move inland near the Louisiana-Texas border later this morning, then move across western and northern Louisiana and into southeastern Arkansas tonight and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected today and tonight while Cindy moves over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of the Florida Panhandle through tonight. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through tonight. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight from the far western Florida Panhandle across southwestern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cindy (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-22 05:01:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 the center of Cindy was located near 28.6, -93.4 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 10
2017-06-22 05:01:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 220300 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Corrected location information in Summary ...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 93.4W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued east of Grand Isle, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 93.4 West. Cindy is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north should occur by Thursday morning, with a turn toward the northeast expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will move inland near the Louisiana-Texas border early Thursday, then move across western and northern Louisiana and into southeastern Arkansas Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with weakening occurring thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent observations from oil rigs near the center is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday night. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area through Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight from the far western Florida Panhandle across southwestern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cindy Graphics
2017-06-22 04:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Jun 2017 02:48:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Jun 2017 03:23:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-06-22 04:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220245 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Cindy's overall convective pattern has changed little since the previous advisory and still resembles a subtropical cyclone. However, earlier this evening a convective band wrapped around into the southwestern quadrant and produced a sustained wind of 56 kt, a gust of 65 kt, and a pressure of 991.9 mb at elevated oil rig KHQI. Using an adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent surface wind of 45 kt, and that value is used for the advisory intensity. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will be investigating the cyclone shortly. The initial motion estimate is 340/06 kt. The latest model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were made on the advisory cycle. Cindy should turn northward early Thursday morning as the cyclone moves through a break in the deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends from the Atlantic Ocean westward along the Gulf coast to Louisiana and Mississippi. Landfall is expected near the Louisiana-Texas border in 6-12 hours. After landfall occurs, Cindy is forecast to turn northward, and by 24-36 hours should accelerate northeastward across the Tennessee River Valley and merge with a frontal system by 72 h. Little change in strength is expected before Cindy makes landfall. Thereafter, gradual weakening should occur until the cyclone merges with a cold front over the eastern United States. The primary threat associated with Cindy will be heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, and also well inland. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 28.6N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 30.1N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0000Z 32.2N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1200Z 34.2N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0000Z 36.1N 85.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Stewart
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