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Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 33
2018-10-04 16:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 731 WTNT33 KNHC 041435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 ...LESLIE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 57.2W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 57.2 West. Leslie is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A reduction in speed is forecast on Friday and Friday night, with Leslie turning toward the east or east-southeast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next several days, and Leslie may weaken to a tropical storm on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 33
2018-10-04 16:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 730 WTNT23 KNHC 041435 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 57.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 150SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 480SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 57.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 57.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 34.1N 57.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.8N 58.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 58.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 180SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 36.8N 56.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 170SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 57.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-04 10:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 08:49:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 09:22:04 GMT
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 32
2018-10-04 10:48:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 546 WTNT43 KNHC 040848 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 Leslie has shown no appreciable changes in its structure during the past several hours, and it continues to be a little thin on convection within its eyewall. Another more impressive band of convection extends nearly more than 120 n mi northwest of the center of the ragged eye. The initial intensity remains 70 kt for this advisory, mainly based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB and an earlier SATCON estimate. Leslie's center has reached sea surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius, and these marginal water temperatures are likely to cause a gradual decrease in the cyclone's winds during the next several days. The new NHC intensity forecast is mainly just an update to the previous forecast, largely following the HCCA guidance and the ICON intensity consensus. Leslie continues to move northward, or 350/7 kt, between a shortwave trough south of Nova Scotia and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. This northward motion should continue for the next 36 hours before Leslie becomes trapped between two mid-level highs and is isolated from the mid-latitude westerlies to the north, thus causing its forward motion to nearly stall by 48 hours. By days 3 through 5, Leslie should feel enough influence from the westerlies and an approaching cold front to cause it to move a bit faster toward the east or east-southeast over the north Atlantic. Like the intensity forecast, no major changes were required to the official track forecast, which is merely an update to the previous NHC prediction. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 31.4N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 33.0N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 35.1N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 36.3N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 36.8N 57.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 36.3N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 35.5N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 34.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2018-10-04 10:47:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 072 FONT13 KNHC 040847 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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