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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-08-12 19:39:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 121739 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...FRED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 74.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 74.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or two. A turn to the northwest is expected by Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move near the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical-storm strength during that time. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations is 1014 mb (29.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic and Haiti...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall through today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From Friday into early next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible in the southeastern Bahamas this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba beginning this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-12 19:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 17:39:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 15:23:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-12 16:58:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 14:58:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 15:23:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-08-12 16:56:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 121456 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 4(28) 1(29) X(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 1(25) 1(26) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20(23) 2(25) 1(26) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) X(22) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 1(21) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 3(27) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 2(27) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 3(24) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-12 16:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT FRED REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Fred was located near 20.9, -74.4 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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