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Tropical Depression Fred Graphics
2021-08-13 10:44:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 08:44:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Aug 2021 08:44:20 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-13 10:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 130843 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Fred continues to produce heavy rains across eastern Cuba and portions of the southeastern Bahamas this morning. However, despite the areas of heavy rain, the system remains poorly organized. Most of the deep convection is located to the east of the center and there is little evidence of banding features. The last pass by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters several hours ago and earlier ASCAT-A data indicated that maximum winds were around 30 kt. Since the storm has changed little in appearance since that time, the initial intensity is held at that value. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and the data both planes collect will be helpful in assessing Fred's intensity and structure. Fred continues to move west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This motion should persist for about another day as the storm continues to move in the flow on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge. After that time, a turn to the northwest and then the north is predicted as Fred moves around the western side of the ridge. Based on this expected motion, the storm should track just north of eastern and central Cuba through tonight and near or across the Florida Keys on Saturday. After that time, there is more spread in the models due to the uncertainty in exactly where and when Fred makes the northwest and north turns. The range in the model solutions this cycle span from over the Florida peninsula to the east-central Gulf of Mexico. Since the typically best-performing models ended up almost on top of the previous prediction, very little change to the track was required. The system is still battling about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, which is part of the reason why the convective pattern is disheveled. The shear is only expected to lessen slightly during the next couple of days, but since the environmental moisture is abundant and SSTs are very warm, gradual strengthening seems likely as Fred moves across the Florida Keys and then near or offshore of the west coast of Florida this weekend. The shear is expected to increase again before Fred makes its final landfall along the Florida panhandle in a few days, and that will likely prevent additional intensification. Steady weakening is expected after the storm moves inland. The intensity guidance is in very good agreement, and this forecast lies near the high end of the models. It should be noted that much of the Florida peninsula is expected to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains and strongest winds will be. KEY MESSAGES: 1. From today into Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, small stream, and exacerbated river flooding, across southern and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible late Saturday and early Sunday across portions of the west coast of Florida in the Tropical Storm Watch area. The risk of tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the Florida west coast and to the Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 22.0N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 22.6N 78.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 23.6N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 24.8N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 26.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 28.1N 83.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 29.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 32.5N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0600Z 35.5N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-13 10:43:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 the center of Fred was located near 22.0, -76.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-13 10:43:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 130843 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...FRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 76.7W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Bonita Beach to Englewood, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma * The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas and elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 76.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and near the west coast of Florida on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Fred could become a tropical storm again later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Cuba and the eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. From today into Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the Florida Keys, in the warning area, on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-13 10:43:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 130843 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 13 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 X 9( 9) 30(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 4(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 18(34) 4(38) X(38) X(38) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 10(34) 1(35) X(35) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 15(28) 1(29) X(29) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 21(25) 2(27) X(27) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) 1(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26) X(26) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 4(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) 1(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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