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Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-14 04:51:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 239 WTNT41 KNHC 140251 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Interaction with land and southwesterly shear has continued to take a toll on Fred this evening. It is very difficult to determine in infrared satellite imagery and recent surface observations from Cuba if a closed circulation still exists, however the system is maintained as a tropical depression for now. Scatterometer data, which should arrive very soon, and reconnaissance aircraft observations on Saturday morning should provide additional information on the system's intensity and structure. The system still appears to be moving moving westward or 280/11 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. The cyclone is approaching the western periphery of a subtropical ridge extending over the western Atlantic, and Fred should turn west-northwestward overnight, and then northwestward on Saturday. The track guidance has again shifted westward, but the shift is not as large as was noted on the previous cycle. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left, closer to the consensus aids, but it still remains to the east of those models. Some additional westward adjustments in subsequent forecasts may be required. As mentioned above, land interaction and southwesterly vertical will limit any attempt of re-organization overnight, however the system is expected to move off the northern coast of Cuba Saturday morning and the global model guidance suggests that a center re-formation could occur over the western portion of the Straits of Florida. The center re-formation shown by the guidance appears to be aided by an area of upper-level diffluent flow to the southeast of an upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although only a little strengthening is indicated in the official forecast through 36 hours, the environment could become a little more conducive on Sunday, and the NHC wind speed forecast again calls for gradual strengthening while Fred moves northwestward over the eastern Gulf. The updated intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the statistical guidance and the HCCA model. The intensity forecast continues to be of lower-than-normal confidence given the current disorganized structure of the system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tonight through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding, across southern and central Florida into the Big Bend. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lower Florida Keys on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 22.7N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 23.4N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 15/0000Z 24.8N 83.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 26.3N 85.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 27.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 29.2N 86.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 30.6N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0000Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-14 04:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 the center of Fred was located near 22.7, -80.6 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1013 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 18
2021-08-14 04:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140249 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 80.6W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle and Upper Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef has been discontinued, including Florida Bay. The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of the Florida panhandle on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 80.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on Saturday, and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday. After that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again by late Saturday or Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Tonight through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting Saturday afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-08-14 04:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 140249 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 4 9(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NAPLES FL 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 1(15) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) 1(27) 1(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 11(29) 1(30) X(30) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20(30) 2(32) X(32) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 5(30) X(30) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 1(18) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) X(23) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) X(27) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26) 1(27) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 18(33) 1(34) X(34) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Depression Fred Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-14 04:49:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 941 WTNT21 KNHC 140249 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED... INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 80.6W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 80.6W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 80.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.4N 81.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.8N 83.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 85.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.8N 86.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.2N 86.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.6N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 37.5N 84.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 80.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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