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Subtropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 3
2020-06-23 10:15:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 515 WTNT34 KNHC 230815 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Four Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.3N 63.4W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Four was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 63.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for next couple of days with some increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with the system likely weakening and transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-06-23 10:15:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 427 WTNT24 KNHC 230815 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0900 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 63.4W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 63.4W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 40.0N 61.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 41.4N 59.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 45.3N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 63.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Subtropical Depression Four Graphics
2020-06-23 04:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 02:38:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 02:38:18 GMT
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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-06-23 04:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230237 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020 The cyclone has little or no deep convection near its center, and remains situated beneath an upper-level low. Therefore, the system is still a subtropical cyclone and the intensity is kept at 30 kt in agreement with the most recent satellite classification from TAFB. The 30-kt intensity was also supported by recent scatterometer data. There is a small window of opportunity for strengthening since the system should remain over a relatively warm Gulf Stream eddy for 12 hours or so. Thereafter, a weakening trend is expected to begin and the system should make the transition to an extratropical cyclone over cooler waters in 36 hours or sooner. The global models indicate that the system should open up into a trough in a couple of days so the official forecast shows dissipation by 72 hours. It would not be surprising if the system meets its demise sooner than that. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance. The motion continues east-northeastward, or 060/9 kt. Over the next few days, the cyclone should remain embedded in a branch of west-southwesterlies that is split off from the main mid-latitude flow. There is good agreement in the track guidance that the system will turn northeastward with some acceleration during the next 48-60 hours. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is also close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 38.7N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 39.2N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 40.3N 60.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 42.0N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0000Z 44.0N 55.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/1200Z 46.0N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-06-23 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 230235 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0300 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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