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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-06-23 16:50:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 231449 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 1500 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 62.1W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 62.1W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 40.6N 60.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 42.3N 58.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 44.2N 55.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 62.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-06-23 10:18:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 504 WTNT44 KNHC 230817 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 500 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 Deep convection has increased during the past several hours in the diurnal convective maximum, although there isn't much organization to the activity. The depression is situated beneath an upper-level low, and the system has a large radius-of-maximum winds, so it is still subtropical. The initial intensity is 30 kt, based on persistence from the earlier scatterometer data. While it is possible the depression could become a storm later today, rapidly cooling SSTs should cause the system to weaken on Wednesday, and open up into a trough on or before Thursday. The depression is moving northeastward at about 11 kt. There is good agreement in the track guidance that the system will continue moving in the same general direction with some acceleration during the next couple of days, embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterlies. The new track forecast has been nudged slightly to the north of the previous one, close to the NOAA corrected-consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 39.3N 63.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 40.0N 61.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 41.4N 59.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0600Z 45.3N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Subtropical Depression Four Graphics
2020-06-23 10:16:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 08:16:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:24:40 GMT
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Subtropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-06-23 10:16:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 230816 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 0900 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Subtropical Depression Four (AT4/AL042020)
2020-06-23 10:15:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Jun 23 the center of Four was located near 39.3, -63.4 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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