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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 15
2016-09-16 04:59:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160257 CCA TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15...CORERCTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND MOTION THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 44.9W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 46 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 240SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 44.9W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 47.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 46.9N 39.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 53.3N 31.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 240SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 58.9N 23.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...360NE 420SE 240SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 63.3N 15.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 360SE 240SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.9N 44.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-15 22:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 20:44:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 20:39:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-09-15 22:43:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 152043 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016 A scatterometer overpass shows that the circulation of Ian is losing definition as the cyclone accelerates northeastward, with the system elongating north to south. The scatterometer did not sample the maximum winds, and the subtropical cyclone satellite intensity estimates are unchanged. Based on this, the initial intensity remains a likely conservative 45 kt. Ian is forecast to merge with a baroclinic zone and undergo extratropical transition during the next 12-36 hours, and in the process it is expected to strengthen to at least storm-force before it is absorbed by another extratropical low. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast based on the global models and guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. Ian continues to accelerate northeastward and the initial motion is now 040/30 kt. A northeastward motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected before the cyclone is absorbed. The new forecast track remains near the center of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 39.6N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 43.2N 42.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 16/1800Z 49.5N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0600Z 55.5N 26.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z 61.0W 18.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-15 22:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON FRIDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 15 the center of IAN was located near 39.6, -47.7 with movement NE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 14
2016-09-15 22:39:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 152039 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 2100 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 47.7W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 240SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 47.7W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 43.2N 42.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 49.5N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 180SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 360SE 240SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 55.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 180SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 420SE 240SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 61.0N 18.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.6N 47.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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