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Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2016-09-15 10:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 150834 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 12
2016-09-15 10:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150833 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0900 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 52.4W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..220NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 52.4W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 53.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.3N 49.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 43.0N 43.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 49.1N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 150SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 270SE 180SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 52.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-15 05:12:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 02:51:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 03:07:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-09-15 04:56:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150256 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 Water vapor imagery indicates that an upper-level low has moved over and has become superimposed with Ian's low-level center. Broken convective banding features, along with an abundance of lightning, have developed northwest through northeast of the center. Drifting buoy 41506, located about 20 nmi north of the center reported 1001.5 mb pressure at 0100Z. Another drifting buoy located about 150 nmi east of the center reported a pressure of around 1015 mb, and the pressure difference between Ian and that buoy supports a gradient wind of 50-52 kt. For now, the initial intensity of Ian will remain at 45 kt since another scatterometer pass over the cyclone is due shortly. Ship BATFR13 has been reporting winds of 30 kt about 250 nmi north-northeast of the center, which supports the previous and current 34-kt wind radius of 200 nmi in that quadrant. Ian has made the much anticipated turn toward the north-northeast, and the cyclone is now moving 015/12 kt. Ian should gradually turn more toward the northeast during the next 24 hours and accelerate as the storm moves around the western portion of Bermuda-Azores High, and ahead of an advancing strong shortwave trough. The new forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track and lies down the middle of the tightly packed NHC track model guidance. Ian is looking more like a subtropical cyclone on conventional satellite. However, the recent increase in deep convection near and within 75 nmi of the center, along with recent AMSU data indicating that the system still has a mid- to upper-level warm-core structure, support maintaining Ian as a tropical cyclone. Ian has about 24 hours or so remaining to intensify as a tropical cyclone while it is located south of the Gulf Stream and over warm waters. By 36 hours, Ian will lose its tropical characteristics over cooler water, but some baroclinic forcing is expected to help strengthen the cyclone. By 72 hours, Ian is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous advisory and follows the trend of global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 33.9N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 36.3N 51.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 40.3N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 45.8N 39.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0000Z 51.7N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-15 04:46:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 14 the center of IAN was located near 33.9, -53.4 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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