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Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-15 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 14:42:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 14:42:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-09-15 16:43:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 151442 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 After looking more like a subtropical cyclone than a tropical cyclone for most of the past 24 hours, there has recently been an increase in convective banding over the eastern semicircle of Ian. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a subtropical cyclone intensity estimate from TAFB. Ian is forecast to merge with the westerlies and undergo extratropical transition during the next 36-48 hours, and in the process it is expected to strengthen to at least storm-force before it is absorbed by another extratropical low. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast based on the global models and guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center Ian is accelerating northeastward and the initial motion is now 040/21. A northeastward motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected before the cyclone is absorbed. The new forecast track is near the center of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 37.2N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 40.3N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 45.6N 39.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 17/0000Z 51.5N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-15 16:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 15 the center of IAN was located near 37.2, -50.5 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 13
2016-09-15 16:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 ...IAN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 50.5W ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 50.5 West. Ian is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 to 36 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Ian is expected to become a storm-force extratropical low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-09-15 16:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 151442 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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