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Tropical Depression Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2019-08-29 04:38:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 290238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

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Tropical Depression Erin Forecast Advisory Number 10

2019-08-29 04:37:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290237 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 72.6W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 42.4N 66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 47.3N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 72.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Depression Erin (AT1/AL062019)

2019-08-28 22:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERIN TURNS NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 the center of Erin was located near 34.5, -72.7 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Erin Public Advisory Number 9

2019-08-28 22:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282044 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 9...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019 ...ERIN TURNS NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 72.7W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 72.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). The cyclone is expected to turn north-northeastward tonight and then accelerate north-northeastward through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours, and Erin is forecast to become post-tropical later tonight. The cyclone could strengthen slightly after becoming an extratropical low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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