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Tropical Storm Ramon Graphics
2017-10-04 22:40:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 20:40:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 20:40:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ramon Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-10-04 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042035 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery, along with Mexican radar data, indicate that Ramon is becoming less organized. Although the estimated intensity estimate will be held at 40 kt based on a ship report that may or may not be correct, weakening seems likely. Strong easterly shear is forecast by the global models to persist over Ramon for the next couple of days, and most of these models show the tropical cyclone dissipating in 24 to 48 hours. Based on that guidance and the current trends, the official forecast now calls for the system to dissipate in 48 hours, and this event could occur sooner than that. The center, if it still exists, continues to be difficult to locate but the system appears to be moving a little faster toward the west-northwest or 285/8 kt. A large mid-level ridge to the north of Ramon is expected to steer the cyclone on a slightly north of westward track until it dissipates. The official track forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one and lies roughly in the middle of the track model guidance. The primary concern with this system is locally heavy rains, which should occur predominately in the immediate coastal zone of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.2N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.3N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 15.6N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ramon (EP4/EP192017)
2017-10-04 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAMON BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... ...NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OR SOONER... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Ramon was located near 15.2, -97.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Ramon Public Advisory Number 3
2017-10-04 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 042035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...RAMON BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... ...NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OR SOONER... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 97.7W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Acapulco. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 97.7 West. Ramon is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ramon is expected to move parallel to, but remain offshore of, the coast of southern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Ramon is losing organization, and weakening is forecast during the next day or two. The cyclone is expected to dissipate by Friday or sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Ramon is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and southern Michoacan through Thursday, with heaviest amounts occurring near the coast. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Ramon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-10-04 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 042035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM RAMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 19 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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